US meddling clouds Syrian regional thaw
Arab neighbors unable to help war-torn nation despite warming ties: experts
Syria’s warming relations with its Arab neighbors may provide some economic relief to the war-torn nation, but Washington’s influence is keeping those neighbors from fully participating in easing and solving Syria’s humanitarian crisis, experts say.
Arhama Siddiqa, a Middle East expert and research fellow at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad, in Pakistan, said the 11-year civil war in Syria has been “catastrophic”, and pointed out that economics was at the core of thawing relations between Syria and its neighbors.
“Economic diplomacy is the order of the day, especially when it comes to the UAE, which has a very economic mindset, as we saw when it signed the Abraham Accords,” Siddiqa said.
In September 2020, the United States brokered the Abraham Accords, an agreement normalizing relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco.
Khaled Almasri, a former dean of the Faculty of International Relations and Diplomacy at Al-Sham Private University in Damascus, said none of the parties can take any step toward normalizing relations with Syria without getting a “green light” from the US, as the Arab region is “highly penetrated by outside powers”.
Rasha Al Joundy, a Gulf expert and senior researcher at the Dubai Public Policy Research Centre, said she believes the “Caesar sanctions” also have something to do with this.
The Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act was signed into law in the US in December 2019. One of its objectives is deterring support for Syrian government-led reconstruction efforts, including by listing or designating non-US persons under American sanctions.
And if these are not lifted, she said, it would be “hard for any country or private entity to enter into a business deal with Syria”, unless “the Americans allowed it”.
Geir Pedersen, the United Nations’ special envoy for Syria, told the UN Security Council on Feb 25 that the Syrian war has driven poverty and hunger to “levels higher than at any previous point”.
He reiterated the need for a “Syrianled, Syrian-owned political process” that is supported by constructive international diplomacy, “however hard that is”.
“As the crisis in Syria reached a new level, most of the players in the region
got to understand the fact that a military solution is not possible anymore,” said Almasri.
Eleven years into the Syrian conflict, United Nations Deputy Emergency Relief Coordinator Joyce Msuya, who also serves as assistant secretary-general for humanitarian affairs, said 14.6 million Syrians — 9 percent more than last year and 32 percent higher than in 2020 — will depend on humanitarian assistance this year.
Syria ranks among the 10 most food insecure countries globally, with a staggering 12 million people in this category, according to the UN.
Syria has been mired in conflict since the civil war started in 2011. The
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimates the number of fatalities at around 600,000.
Al Joundy from the Dubai Public Policy Research Centre added that the UAE’s position was because it was evident that Western nations had “no intention” of making “any decision that could enforce a political reconciliation. It was asserted behind closed doors that there was no strategy in the West beyond fighting ISIS (the Islamic State militant group).”
A member of the Arab League until its suspension in November 2011, Syria has been making strides in restoring its relations with the Arab region despite Western sanctions.
Syria is set to host the Arab energy conference in 2024, while Bahrain appointed in December its first ambassador to Syria in over a decade, and Jordan has fully reopened its main border crossing with Syria to boost trade.
In January, Syria joined the Chinaproposed Belt and Road Initiative.
“Its participation in the BRI can create a new corridor through the Middle East connecting Iran to Syria via Iraq and would be beneficial to all states in the region,” said Siddiqa.
Al Joundy noted that with the situation in Ukraine, the White House “will be harder on Russia’s allies, not softer”. Syria, often considered a Russian ally, will probably be “under pressure”.