Tokyo seeks to exploit Ukraine crisis

Japan cannot expect to gain much by imposing sanctions on Russia, dancing to the US’ tune

Japan is part of the West-led bloc that has imposed economic and trade sanctions on Russia, with the aim of weakening the Russian economy, instead of making sincere efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Japan has not only slapped sanctions on exports to Russia’s “military-related” organizations and restricted the supply of even general purpose goods such as semiconductors but also frozen the assets of, and stopped issuing visas to, Russian individuals and organizations.

The world’s third-largest economy has also blocked selected Russian banks from the Society of Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, a global network that enables financial institutions to send and receive information about financial transactions in a secure, standardized and reliable manner.

Japan has also frozen the financial assets of President Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials, the Russian Central Bank and some other financial institutions. Currently, the sanctions list has 76 individuals, seven banks and 12 other Russian institutions and organizations.

Tokyo’s reaction to Moscow’s special military operation in Ukraine is in stark contrast to its response when Russia declared sovereignty over Crimea following a referendum in 2014.

Shinzo Abe, the then Japanese prime minister, did announce sanctions against Russia at the time but they were much lighter and limited in scope compared with those imposed by the United States and European countries.

In fact, Abe tried to strengthen relations with Russia and had 27 face-to-face meetings with Putin.

The shift in Tokyo’s Russia policy can be attributed to the political developments in Japan.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has steered the country away from Abe’s policy toward Russia, in a bid to reduce Abe’s influence in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, or LDP, and garner enough support to win the election to the House of Councilors, the upper chamber of parliament, in July.

Kishida believes that, by acting tough against Russia, he can get more public support. And he may be right. According to a Kyodo News survey on March 20, the approval rating for Kishida’s cabinet rose from 56.6 percent in February to 60.1 percent last month.

Japan’s stance on the RussiaUkraine conflict underscores the country’s broader shift toward a more assertive foreign policy, as it has sent bulletproof vests, helmets and other nonlethal military equipment to Ukraine.

This is the first time that Japan has supplied such equipment to a country locked in a conflict since the end of World War II.

Not surprisingly, some Japanese political forces have tried to take advantage of the Ukraine crisis to hype up the so-called security threats in the Asia-Pacific region, in order to achieve their strategic goals.

For example, after the Ukraine crisis broke out, Abe urged Tokyo to consider the finalization of a nuclear-sharing agreement with Washington.

But, despite Kishida promptly rejecting Abe’s suggestion — by saying it is unacceptable given Japan’s vow to abide by the three nonnuclear principles of not possessing, not producing and not permitting the introduction of nuclear weapons — the LDP is set to begin internal discussions on nuclear deterrence.

Japan is the only country in the world that has suffered a nuclear attack and discussions on whether to have nuclear weapons have always been a taboo in Japanese society.

Therefore, it would be difficult for Japan to let the US install nuclear weapons on its soil or abandon the three non-nuclear principles. Yet, the debate on the nuclear-sharing option could encourage the country to develop advanced weaponry.

At present, Japan is considering plans to strengthen its Self-Defense Forces’ capability of launching preemptive attacks on the missile bases of potential enemies.

The fear is that, if Japan completely unties itself from the constitutional constraints of an “exclusively defense-oriented policy”, it will reshape the security architecture in the Asia-Pacific region.

Also, the Ukraine crisis may prompt Japan’s hawkish politicians to try to amend the country’s constitution. Even Kishida, considered a dove by many, has vowed to push for the LDP’s goal of revising the constitution.

But, since any amendment to the constitution requires the approval of two-thirds of the members of both houses of parliament and public support through a nationwide referendum — and since, according to a recent poll, more than half of the Japanese people oppose it — the LDP will continue to persuade more and more people to demand constitutional revision.

Moreover, the Japanese government has also taken advantage of the Ukraine-Russia conflict to call for a reform of the United Nations, with Kishida saying on March 14 that the conflict shows “the need for a new framework for international order”.

Kishida’s idea was echoed by Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, who said on March 18 that Japan will work with other countries to seek UN reforms and Japan’s elevation as a permanent member of the UN Security Council.

The UN was established after World War II to keep fascism and militarism at bay and build a postwar world order. But some Japanese politicians have always ignored historical facts and Japan’s militarist past to seek the country’s permanent membership in the Security Council.

Obviously, Japan intends to capitalize on the Ukraine crisis to achieve some of its strategic goals. For instance, it has drawn an analogy between the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Taiwan question to claim China poses a threat to the region.

Delivering a speech on March 12 during a visit to Malaysia, Abe, in an apparent reference to the Taiwan question, said, “unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force or economic coercion pose a serious threat to Asia. We should raise a voice of opposition in unison”.

Similarly, Kishida issued a statement recently, claiming he will not accept any unilateral attempt to change the status quo in the region by force or coercion, because that would undermine the very foundation of the world order.

Most Southeast Asian and South Asian countries have avoided taking sides in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

The foreign ministers of the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations issued a statement on March 3, calling for an immediate cease-fire and the continuation of political dialogue to resolve the crisis and restore peace in Ukraine.

As for India, it has bought 3 million barrels of Russian crude oil at a discount despite the US sanctions.

Perhaps on the advice of Washington, Kishida visited India and Cambodia from March 19 to 21 to persuade South and Southeast Asian countries to change their stance on the Ukraine crisis and demand that no country be allowed to change the status quo by force.

But Japan should not expect to gain much by dancing to the US’ tune.