Emissions could peak sooner

The nation’s greenhouse gas emissions could peak at most five years earlier than expected, the annual blue book on China’s low-carbon economic development said on Thursday.

Greenhouse gas emissions are likely to peak between 2025 and 2030, according to the Global Low-carbon Economy Institute, which is a joint venture between the University of International Business and Economics and Nagoya University.

That timeframe would be earlier than the deadline set by China.

A joint announcement with the United States in November, issued during US President Barack Obama’s Beijing visit, said that carbon dioxide emissions in China would peak around 2030.

Zhu Yuezhong, a co-author of the report and a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said the greenhouse gas peak would likely occur between 2025 and 2030, mostly likely 2027 or 2028. But he warned that the conclusion was a hypothesis based on many assumptions.

The actual date would depend on the progress of energy restructuring and the implementation of related policies by local governments. Another factor is coal consumption, which the report said would peak around 2020.

Domestic coal output fell 2.5 percent last year to 3.87 billion metric tons, while use totaled 3.51 billion tons, down from 3.61 billion tons in 2013.

Analysts have forecast that coal consumption will continue to fall as the economic “new normal” of slower but more sustainable growth persists, along with a shift to services, away from manufacturing, and greater use of efficient technology.

China aims to cut its coal use to below 65 percent of total energy use by 2017. In particular, it wants to reduce consumption of the fuel in key regions where air pollution is heavy, such as Beijing and the Yangtze and Pearl river deltas.

But whether coal consumption keeps falling is uncertain, especially with downward economic pressure, said Zhu.

“Many regions face great pressure to maintain steady growth, and investment-driven, energy-guzzling projects are still attractive to them,” he said.