Which direction will Russia-West ties take?

OnMonday, a Turkish policeman shot dead Russia’s ambassador to Turkey Andrei Karlov. BothMoscow and Ankara condemned Karlov’s assassination, saying the act was an attempt to thwart efforts to repair bilateral ties, which had been strained because of the two countries’ support for opposing sides in the Syrian civil war.

Despite being condemned by theUnited States and the UnitedNations, the assassination partly reflects the tense relations between Russia and theWest. That Turkey being aNATOmember and part of theUnited States-led campaign against the Islamic State group have further complicated the Russia-West ties.

This year has been bumpy for Russia-West relations. In his televised state-of-the-nation address earlier this month, Russian President Vladimir Putin saidMoscow hopes to normalize ties with Washington and is ready to jointly tackle global challenges such as terrorism if its interests are respected. But relations between Russia and theWest have remained tense since the Crimea crisis in 2014.

There is good news, though, asRussia-Japan relations are beginning to thaw even though no major breakthroughs have been achieved. Besides, some EuropeanUnion member states have hinted at improving relations with Russia after having followed theUS to impose harsh economic sanctions onMoscow. And with Donald Trump being sworn in as theUS president next month, one can expect US-Russia relations, if not West-Russia relations, to improve, even if partly, as Trump has said he wants better ties withMoscow.

This is not the first time Putin has said he hopes to improve relations with the US, and by default with the West. Putin’s diplomatic gesture has a lot to do with the newgeopolitical landscape following theUnited Kingdom’s vote to break away from the EU, Trump’s victory in theUS presidential election and the rise of rightwing politicians in the EU.

Traditionally, it has been easier for Russia to deal with a Republican-ledUS administration while Democratic presidents like Barack Obama have tended to act tough withMoscow. So one can hope Trump, asUS president, will possibly improve US-Russia ties, but disparities over the two countries’ core interests will remain.

It is too early to say what will be impact of the rise of right-wing forces in Europe on Russia-EU ties. Admittedly, the opposition parties in Italy and Austria, which now have a greater chance of winning the impending leadership elections in the two countries, have professed interest in improving relations with Russia, many Europeans are yet to accept Crimea’s inclusion into Russia, a region which they say belongs to Ukraine.

The clash between Russia and theWest is rooted in their different ideologies and cultures. The two sides have contrasting views on the world order.

Considering Russia to be the losing side in the Cold War, theWest has denied it a decisive say in making international rules, while Russia demands to be treated as equal to the US when it comes to global affairs. A possible change in Russia-West ties could also help ease Russia-NATO tensions, which have escalated as a result of the Ukraine crisis.

On its part, Russia should be motivated to move closer to theEUwhile seeking to improve its ties with theUS, because it is more dependent on theEUmarket, technologies and funds than the other way round, andRussia-EU cooperation is likely to generate more pragmatic, tangible benefits forMoscow. The author is deputy director of the Center for Russian Studies at the East China Normal University in Shanghai. The article is an excerpt from his interview with China Daily’s Cui Shoufeng.

US President Barack Obama’s eight-year term will end in January. He has rewritten history by becoming the first African American president of theUnited States, but he will leave behind a mixed legacy.

The positives first. Obama led theUS through the global financial crisis, creating newjobs and helping revive the country’s economy. Under his leadership, theUS agreed with China to reduce their respective carbon emissions. The two countries also worked together to clinch the Paris Agreement on climate change last year. And with the “Clean Power Plan”, theUS raised its energy efficiency levels, reduced oil imports, and started developing clean energy rapidly.

As a nationwide healthcare reform, his Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (or Obamacare) has considerably reduced the number of people without medical insurance cover. High on the agenda of Obama’s second term were legalizing same-sex marriage, promoting equality in education, and immigration reform. He has succeeded on one front, as gay marriage has been legalized in 50 states. And he has tried to delay repatriating 5 million illegal immigrants and grant them work permits.

To give meaning to his diplomatic and counter-terrorism moves, Obama withdrew US combat troops from Iraq by the end of 2011 and from Afghanistan by October 2014. And onMay 2, 2011, US forces eventually shot dead Osama bin Laden, the mastermind of the Sept 11, 2001, attacks.

Thanks partly to Obama’s efforts, the ice was broken between theUS and Cuba, withWashington andHavana upgrading their respective “interests sections” in each other’s capitals to embassies in July, 2015. And onMarch 20, 2016, Obama became the firstUS president to visit Cuba in 88 years.

In 2015, theUS led successful negotiations for a nuclear deal aimed at preventing Iran from making nuclear weapons, and when Iran complied this year, Washington lifted part of the sanctions on Teheran, which breathed some life into the nearly four-decade-old frozen bilateral relations.

But Iran is the only silver lining in Obama’s Asia policy. He shifted the focus ofUS diplomacy from theMiddle East to the Asia-Pacific, epitomized by his “pivot” to Asia strategy. As part of its “smart power diplomacy”, the Obama administration tacitly fueled the “Arab Spring”, which has left many countries, especially Syria and Libya, in tatters and resulted in a massive power vacuum in theMiddle East and played a key role in the emergence of the Islamic State group.

In the Asia-Pacific, Obama’s “pivot” strategy, instead of bringing about stability and prosperity, has intensified differences among the region’s countries and heightened tensions. To allow theUS to dictate trade and economic terms in the Asia-Pacific, Obama proposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, which now is all but dead asUS president-elect Donald Trump has vowed to scrap it on his first day in office.

Eight years ago, Obama entered the WhiteHouse with the promise of change. But he has managed to change little in theUS, as attacks on blacks have increased, with many blacks falling victims to police bullets. He has failed to change the country’s gun culture, too. And although he raised the minimum wage and took initiatives to help the poor and needy, the gap between the rich and poor in theUS has widened.

His healthcare reform is indeed a welcome move, but given the loopholes in and economic burden of Obamacare and, more importantly president-elect Donald Trump’s aversion to it, the future of the scheme looks uncertain.

It is difficult to guess the fate of even the good policies Obama has implemented once Trump is sworn in as US president next month. Trump has already said he wants to “Make America Great Again” and put “America First” by reversing Obama’s domestic and foreign policies. And with billionaires and retired generals in his team, it is difficult to say what kind of change Trump will bring to theUS and the world. The author is a senior fellow at the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and managing editor of The Chinese Journal of American Studies.

CAI MENG / CHINA DAILY