Britain’s long winter of discontent continues as Brexit draws near

As symbolism goes, the recent drone incident at London’s Gatwick Airport could hardly have been more appropriate for Britain as it enters the proposed year for Brexit.

Days before Christmas, reports of drones flying into the airport’s airspace resulted in flights being grounded for more than 24 hours, with passengers left waiting indefinitely. Thousands of lives and plans were put on hold, with nothing moving and no one sure when or how things would get going again, or what the resumed service would be like.

Sussex police then said they had been relying on eyewitnesses, and that “there may not have been any genuine drone activity in the first place”. Police said no footage of a drone had been obtained, and there was the possibility that the reported sightings of drones were mistaken – with the government then saying there had been “miscommunication” by police. Still, no one was any the clearer on what had transpired.

As the Brexit date looms on the horizon, such feelings apply to many aspects of life in Britain. With less than three months until the country’s scheduled departure at the end of March from the European Union, uncertainty about its impact on all aspects of everyday life is inescapable.

Remainers warn of chaos, while “leavers” reject such talk as scaremongering. But no one on either side of the gaping political divide knows for certain what will happen next, or what the consequences will be.

The year 2018 began with British Prime Minister Theresa May telling the nation that Britons would feel “renewed confidence and pride” during the year. It ended with UK Secretary of State for Defence Gavin Williamson telling Parliament that 3,500 service personnel would be on standby “in order to support any government department on any contingencies they may need” in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

When Leavers in the 2016 referendum spoke of taking back control, it is unclear whether this is what they had in mind, but troops on the streets is a possibility the government is planning for. So how on earth did Britain get here?

At the end of 2017, Brexit negotiations seemed orderly. EU leaders were satisfied with their progress, and European Council President Donald Tusk even tweeted that “EU leaders agree to move on to the second phase of Brexit talks. Congratulations PM @theresa_may.”

By March, however, although progress was made on some fronts, relations at the coming of spring had ironically become more wintry, particularly over the issue of the future status of the border between Northern Ireland – part of the United Kingdom – and EU member Ireland.

There is a desire on all sides to avoid the reintroduction of a hard border, but this would mean Northern Ireland having a different status from the rest of the United Kingdom, which is highly contentious politically and regarded as nonnegotiable. A so-called backstop plan, for a temporary arrangement, has only caused further arguments.

Britain’s failure to present a solution to the issue of how to avoid a hard border left Tusk saying that “as long as the UK doesn’t present such a solution, it is very difficult to imagine substantive progress in Brexit negotiations”. Then, in a warning sign of what was to come for the rest of the year, he added, “If in London someone assumes that the negotiations will deal with other issues first before the Irish issue, my response would be: Ireland first.”

On June 26, the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 was passed by Parliament, enshrining in law that the European Communities Act 1972 would be repealed on exit day, set down as March 29, 2019, at 11 pm. But if May thought this was a sign of an easier summer, she was sorely mistaken.

Early in July, just days before US President Donald Trump arrived in the country, May published her own so-called Chequers plan, laying out her vision of the future relationship between the UK and the EU.

It instantly ran into problems, with Brexit Secretary David Davis resigning in protest, followed by his second in command, Steve Baker, and then Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson.

Trump then gave an exclusive interview to The Sun newspaper in which he said May had “wrecked Brexit” and spoke glowingly of Johnson, a man with very obvious leadership ambitions of his own, only to subsequently deny it and praise May for the “fantastic job” she was doing.

Davis’ successor as Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab, continued discussions with EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier throughout the summer, and in a joint media conference at the end of August, he said he was “stubbornly optimistic” about getting a trade deal – but, crucially, there was no progress over the issue of Northern Ireland.

In September, at a European leaders summit in Salzburg, Austria, May’s Chequers plan was roundly criticized, with her inability to present an answer to the Irish question once again the stumbling block, although May dismissed this as a negotiating tactic.

Having published its first guidance over preparations for a no-deal Brexit at the end of August, the government, as the autumn passed, began to talk about the prospect with increasing frequency.

Finally, in November, May and EU leaders came to an agreement for withdrawal terms, which she then took to the Cabinet for its backing – only to encounter more hostility.

Raab resigned, becoming the second minister for Exiting the European Union to exit the ministry, and May’s proposals were then criticized from all sides of the House of Commons.

A parliamentary vote on them, which she was widely expected to lose, was postponed at 24 hours’ notice so she could go for more talks with European leaders, despite their publicly stated lack of interest in further negotiations.

This prompted a vote of no confidence in May by her own Conservative Party MPs, which she survived by 200 votes to 117 — a win, but hardly a convincing one.

Days before the parliamentary holiday for Christmas, she confirmed the delayed vote would take place in the week beginning Jan 14, as the countdown clock for Brexit continues to tick, with no sign yet of a likely agreement.

Cabinet ministers were then informed of contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit, with the Department of Health and Social Care revealing it had become the world’s leading buyer of refrigeration to preserve medical supplies, and talk of a potential deployment of troops. And then everything stopped for Christmas.

Rarely has a country entered a new year with such a blank sheet in front of it.

The Confederation of British Industry has backed May’s muchcriticized proposals by saying they represent “hard-won progress” and compromise is needed on all sides to avoid a no-deal Brexit, which it called an “unacceptable option” that would badly damage the economy.

Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, said less than half of British businesses have plans in place for a no-deal Brexit, and warned that Brexit without some form of agreement could feasibly result in food bills rising by 10 percent, housing prices falling by 30 percent and a near doubling of unemployment.

Do the biggest brains in British business and economics think such outcomes could happen? Potentially, yes. But can they predict it with any confidence? No — because at this stage, no one can predict anything with any degree of certainty. Early in 2018, supporters were furious at the Royal Mail for not issuing Brexit celebration stamps. The year has ended with the possibility of troops on the streets.

Before the 1964 general election, Labour Party leader Harold Wilson famously coined what has become one of the most frequently repeated quotes in British political history — “A week is a long time in politics.”

If a week is a long time, 52 weeks of 2018 in pre-Brexit Britain have felt more like a lifetime. And what will happen between now and then — let alone beyond that date — is anyone’s guess.

XINHUA