No negative population growth yet

CHINA ALLOWED all couples to have two children in 2016 to cushion the effect of its fast aging society. But the number of newborns has remained markedly lower than expected over the past two years. Beijing News comments:

According to a sample survey of 1 percent of the national population in 2015, the National Bureau of Statistics says China’s fertility rate — the average number of children each woman of child-bearing age has — remains at 1.04, lower than in some developed countries.

Based on the low fertility rate, some argue that China’s population entered an almost irreversible negative growth phase last year, as the number of newborns plummet to a new low below 10 million last year, less than the number of deaths. They claim that the number of births in China last year has been the smallest since the middle of the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911), even if the population base is more than four times that of the Qing Dynasty.

Which is wrong. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the number of newborns in 2017 was 17.23 million. Although the number in 2018 has not been revealed yet by the central authorities it cannot have abruptly plunged below 10 million. The data released by local governments indicate the newborns last year might be 10 percent to 15 percent less than in 2017, which means there would be about 15 million to 16 million new births, which will be markedly higher than the number of deaths in the country.

A research report published by the Institute of Population and Labor Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences on Saturday citing data from the World Bank concluded that China’s national fertility rate remains around 1.6, which if maintained means negative population growth will not come until 2027.

It is high time the NBS enlarged the scale of its sample survey to make its fertility rate more accurate and objective to reflect the real changes of the population size. Otherwise, policymakers might arrive at the wrong conclusions.

And to boost the desire of couples to have children, the government needs to further improve its public services and increase its input in education, medical care and care for the elderly.

This is the first national mandatory labeling regulation on GM foods introduced by the United States, the birthplace of GM plants — a genetically modified tobacco plant containing an antibody was developed in the US in 1983. Since then GM foods have spread fast in the US, and beyond.

By the end of 2017, GM plants were consumed in 67 countries, among which 24 have given a green light to the planting of GM crops.

About 90 percent of cotton, soybean and corn planted in the US is genetically modified, and nearly 80 percent of processed food in the US market contains GM ingredients.

Proponents of genetic modification claim that GM foods are safe, and there is currently no evidence to prove that they have adverse effects on humans. However, some scientists are opposed to GM foods. They believe that the current research on GM foods is short-term and it is impossible to assess the impact they will have after decades of consumption.

The US government has remained open to GM foods, but the compulsory labeling regulation marks an important step in the control and management of GM foods in the US, if not a change of attitude toward GM foods by the authorities.

Although GM crops have increased the output of grains worldwide, their proponents cannot dispel the wide concern that the current research on GM foods cannot predict their possible impact on human health in the future, as well as the ethical risks of manipulating genes, which cannot be easily ignored.

The US, as the largest exporter and beneficiary of GM foods, seeds and technology, is obliged to take the lead in exploring the setting up of risks and ethics assessment mechanisms for each kind of GM food before it is launched in the market.

LI MIN / CHINA DAILY