China Daily Global Edition (USA)
Brakes seen on Turkey-Syria conflict, despite fears of escalation
An increase in clashes along the Syrian-Turkish border is fueling speculation that another large-scale war may be looming, though some experts put that possibility as “relatively small”.
Syrian government troops captured a key opposition town in the country’s northwest on Wednesday, in the face of Turkish threats to use force if the Syrians do not pull back by the end of the month.
The town of Saraqeb sits at the intersection of two major highways, one linking the Syrian capital Damascus to the north and the other connecting the country’ west and east. It administratively belongs to the Idlib Governorate, which is at the center of the conflict between Syria and Turkey.
However, neither of the two countries is willing to expand the current conflict into a large-scale war, despite the region’s great military importance to both Syria and Turkey, said Zhang Bo, a researcher at the Institute of West Asian and African Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
For the Syrian government, Idlib is the last province yet to be recovered from opposition forces.
If the Syrian government can take full control of the province, it may mark its victory in defeating the conspiracy to subvert the government, said Zhang.
Still, Syria will not “proactively expand and escalate war with Turkey” as the war-torn country is far weaker than its neighbor in terms of national and military strength, according to Zhang.
But Turkey’s disadvantage lies in the lack of legitimacy of its military campaign.
“What’s more, if the situation keeps worsening, the large number of fleeing Syrian refugees will become a problem that will be even more unbearable for Turkey than for Syria,” Zhang added.
Moreover, the involvement of a third-party reduces the possibility of an escalation in the conflict.
Dong Manyuan, an expert on Middle East studies at the China Institute of International Studies, believe that Russia’s presence amid the Syrian-Turkish conflict will allow both sides to show some restraint, thereby avoiding an escalation.
“Turkey wants to make a bargain with Russia on other issues, such as the Libyan issue, as an exchange for its military actions in Syria,” Dong said. “Before Turkey can receive certain benefits from the negotiations mentioned above, its goal is to prevent Russia from helping the Syrian government to retake Idlib province.”
Ankara’s determination in this goal was evident when Turkey unilaterally suspended joint patrols with Russia along the Syrian-Turkish border after the Turkish army was hit by Syrian government forces in Idlib. The joint operations had been conducted since last November.
With Russia attaching great importance to its ties with Turkey, Dong said Moscow will pay enough attention to Ankara’s interests and restrict the Syrian government.
In a phone call initiated by Turkey, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed to take immediate measures to improve coordination of their countries’ actions in Syria. The two leaders highlighted the need to follow their agreements on Idlib that envisage increasing cooperation to “neutralize extremists”, the Kremlin said on Tuesday.
In Turkey’s account of the call, it said earlier that Erdogan told Putin that Turkey would exercise its selfdefense rights in the event of another attack on Turkish military personnel in Syria.
Erdogan also told Putin that the Syrian forces must retreat to a point agreed on in a 2018 cease-fire agreement.
Meanwhile, the United States, Britain and France have requested an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council on the escalating tension in northwest Syria. The open meeting is expected to take place on Thursday afternoon and include a briefing by the UN special envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, and UN humanitarian chief Mark Lowcock.
Reuters-AP contributed to this story.