OPEC saying no to West shows its autonomy

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has repeatedly rejected calls from the United States and the European Union to increase production.

That reflects the organization’s own interests and judgments on the one hand, and the widening rift between the Arab world and the West on the other.

In the process, OPEC’s status as the major energy supplier in the world has been reaffirmed.

That the Middle East countries have taken a comparatively neutral stance between the US and Russia is because the geopolitics in the region are changing, and the OPEC member states’ trust in the West is declining.

Memories of the Arab Spring, civil wars in Syria and Libya, and unrest in Egypt are still fresh in the Arab world. In retrospect, the dream of a “new Middle East” of social reform was met with continued social unrest and economic decline.

Arab states including Egypt, Libya and Algeria have begun a strategic shift eastward, building strong ties with the likes of China and Russia. No wonder some analysts say that if the West really wants to influence OPEC production, the first step is to rebuild trust.

Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region have been already suffering from US policy for a long time. With the US acting in its own self-interest, Riyadh has in recent years not only reopened channels of dialogue with Iran but also pushed hard for deeper co-operation among Arab states.

At the same time, the Gulf Cooperation Council has actively looked eastward and stepped up cooperation with Asian countries in energy and infrastructure, and Arab sovereign wealth funds are increasingly investing in Russia and Asia.

For decades, OPEC has been seen as key to stabilizing oil markets in times of crisis. It is acquiring a bigger influence now, as its willingness to say no to the West suggests that it is willing to demonstrate much greater strategic autonomy than before.