1ST-YEAR EXPECTATIONS
How coaches before Lebby fared in their initial seasons
STARKVILLE — Jeff Lebby emerged from the tunnel at Davis Wade Stadium sporting a maroon rope hat atop his head while donning a shirt reading “Showtime at State.” As he joined the Mississippi State football team running onto the field for the April 20 spring game, he carried with him the start of a new era in Starkville.
That feeling has become a common occurrence for the Bulldogs. Lebby is the fourth head coach at Mississippi State since 2018.
Since Dan Mullen’s nine-year tenure ended in 2017 with his departure for Florida, MSU has struggled to find consistency at the helm. Joe Moorhead was hired as Mullen’s replacement but lasted only two seasons. Mike Leach followed and gave the Bulldogs a sense of stability, but his unexpected death in 2022 led to the promotion of Zach Arnett, who was fired 10 games into his first full season.
Now, it’s Lebby’s turn. As he enters his first season as a head coach after various stints as an offensive coordinator, what are fair expectations for Lebby?
The answer is complicated. Expectations could be low for Lebby, and the preseason polls likely will reflect that. Since MSU became part of the SEC in 1933, only seven of its 19 coaches have had a winning record in their first year. Coming off a losing season which saw a plethora of players exhausting eligibility or leaving for the transfer portal, it’s reasonable to believe Lebby’s first campaign could be a struggle.
Then there’s the flipside. Lebby is coaching in an era unlike any other in the sport’s history. Mississippi State saw key players such as quarterback Will Rogers transfer out, but no first-year coach in Starkville has been able to utilize the portal to
from the SEC East’s confines.
Hot-seat pressure is only one type of pressure. In Tuscaloosa comes the pressure of replacing the GOAT.
Here’s my ranking of five SEC coaches facing the most pressure this season.
5. Clark Lea (Vanderbilt)
My eyes must have grown to the size of saucers when Lea casually dropped this humdinger at 2021 SEC Media Days ahead of his first Vanderbilt season: “There’s no better program in the country than Vanderbilt football.” There’s hyperbole, and then there’s outright lies.
Lea’s program remains stuck in neutral. He enters his fourth season with just two SEC victories. Vanderbilt hasn’t just been bad. It’s bad and boring. His predecessors showed that the bar can be higher than averaging three wins.
Do NIL and transfer freedom work against Vanderbilt? We’d need a bigger sample size of coaches to determine that.
Vanderbilt played last season in a stadium under construction. If it’s going to invest in facilities, then it might as well strive for something better than the SEC’s cellar.
Lea goes on the clock in Year 4.
4. Brent Venables (Oklahoma)
After Oklahoma started 7-0 last season, who was still thinking about Venables’ seven-loss 2022 debut? By late October, the Sooners had beaten rival Texas and emerged as a playoff contender. It didn’t last.
Oklahoma lost to Kansas and Oklahoma State, finished 10-3, and star quarterback Dillon Gabriel transferred to Oregon. It went down as a nice encore for Venables, but, oh, what it could have been? The jury remains out on Venables. He’s recruiting pretty well, and he improved the defense.
A splashy SEC debut would build momentum. A flop would raise concerns. A rugged schedule won’t make any of it easy. Sophomore quarterback Jackson Arnold is talented but untested against this level of competition.
Texas finding purchase under Steve Sarkisian and becoming a national championship contender adds pressure. Year 3 will establish the direction of Venables’ tenure.
3. Kalen DeBoer (Alabama)
DeBoer could exceed Nick Saban’s first-year win total at Alabama and still leave Tide fans feeling underwhelmed. Saban’s achievements following his 7-6 debut in Tuscaloosa reestablished the Alabama standard as one of greatness. DeBoer doesn’t need to deliver an immediate championship, but he must show he’s up to this job, or Saban’s lingering shadow will consume him.
DeBoer presents as unflappable, humble but confident. He’ll need to be. Alabama’s schedule affords him no joyride. Saban left DeBoer with some nice ingredients, but the cupboard isn’t quite as stocked as it once was.
Players sang DeBoer’s praises in the spring. The honeymoon phase is unfolding nicely, but the hero’s welcome ends and the challenge begins in September, when Alabama will face Wisconsin and Georgia in consecutive weeks.
2. Billy Napier (Florida)
Scott Stricklin worked the offseason stump to megaphone the message that Napier is not on the hot seat. Florida’s athletic director doth protest too much. Napier and Stricklin are bonded in rising waters.
A coach hamstrung by an 11-14 record needs a narrative to sell. Napier doesn’t have one. The on-field product too often has been an eyesore.
A brilliant tactician? Florida’s special teams suggest otherwise. Recruiting? Pedestrian. A well-oiled NIL operation? Doesn’t seem like it.
Napier’s best pitch would be if ballyhooed freshman quarterback DJ Lagway made a smashing debut and teased a brighter future, but Napier might feel he must lean on veteran Graham Mertz to have hope of navigating a schedule loaded with 11 Power Four opponents.
Unfortunately for Napier, Florida could improve and still finish 6-6 against this schedule. That’s an uninspiring sales pitch.
1. Sam Pittman (Arkansas)
Pittman’s jukebox played a sad tune throughout his fourth season, a second year of regression after the Head Hog’s pinnacle in 2021. He brought in coordinator Bobby Petrino to revive the offense and save his tenure. I wouldn’t recommend copying too many of Jimbo Fisher’s moves.
Pittman’s contract features a clause that would reduce his buyout if his record drops below .500 overall since the start of the 2021 season. Now, that’s pressure. His record during that span is 20-18. Circle Arkansas’ Oct. 19 game against LSU as the potential date when Pittman’s record since ’21 could slide below .500 and incentivize Arkansas to fire Pittman for a discounted buyout of about $8 million.
Put the numbers aside, because Pittman’s reality requires little math. He must produce a strong rebound season to save his job, but I question whether he possesses the roster to achieve that.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s SEC Columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.