Are Markets for Rare U.S. Coins Poised to Skyrocket?

lower-retail is often a good deal for a profit-hopeful collector. It is important not to lie awake at night obsessing about whether a particular auction price is wholesale or retail, as it is sometimes difficult to tell. In most cases, though, wholesale prices can be clearly distinguished from retail prices.

It is practical to reflect upon some prices realized in 2020 that were excellent values in the context of coin markets in 2020. It is not implied that the coins mentioned will or will not be worth more in the future. Understanding wholesale and retail levels in the present is different from predicting wholesale and retail values in the future. It makes sense to learn about the present before thinking about the future.

When referring to prices realized during the first three months of 2020, it is important to keep in mind that prices for rarities and very scarce classic U.S. coins trended downward slightly during April, May, June, and

July. Of course, not every rarity or pre-1934 conditionrarity fell in value but most did fall somewhat. Moreover, the coronavirus’s consequences have severely limited trading from April to July and have discouraged some people from buying and selling. A reduction in volume, however, does not necessarily lead to a decline in prices.

If the number of buyers declines and the number of items offered for sale declines, too, prices might remain around the same, though they will never be precisely the same.

Prices for rare coins were trending downward in 2019 and early 2020, anyway. As of July 28, it is not clear that the coronavirus’s consequences have had much of an effect on the prices for rarities, though prices are at least a little lower.

As I wrote earlier, generic gold coins and bullion items are different topics I am not addressing.

Increases in gold and silver prices as metals (bullion) have had minimal effect on the market values of rare silver or gold coins during June and July 2020.

Coming up in this article I mention a few examples of coins sold after March of 2020, mostly because I have not attended coin events during April, May, June, or July. I rely on first-hand analysis. Usually, I will not publicly state that a coin was a good value if I have not personally examined it.

Because of the coronavirus and the reality that most public sales are now online with minimal (if any) lot viewing in person, I am making an exception to my own rule. I am citing a few coins sold between April through

June that were probably good values, although I have not seen them. Regarding the mentioned coins that were auctioned in January and February 2020, I have held all of them. A theme here is to help profit-hopeful coin collectors differentiate between wholesale and retail prices. (Certified Acceptance Corporation) verified, PCGS (Professional Coin Grading Service) graded MS-66

1887 half dollar for $3,600. In December 2019, Heritage auctioned a different CAC verified, PCGS graded MS-66 1887 half dollar for $6,300. While values for gem Liberty Seated half dollars have fallen since December 2019, they have not fallen by more than 15%. As both these coins have the same PCGS grade and CAC verification, the difference in price is important. The $3,600 amount realized in June 2020 is clearly a wholesale price. A dealer might ask $6,000 for this coin if he offered it during the summer of 2020.

On June 4, 2020, Heritage auctioned a CAC verified, PCGS graded MS-66 1865 half dollar for $9,300. The exact same coin was sold by Heritage for $23,000 in April 2008. In June 2020, the Greysheet (Coin Dealer Newsletter) ‘dealer bid’ (top-wholesale) estimate for an MS-66 grade 1865 half dollar was $9,500, but the Greysheet’ dealer bid’ for a CAC verified MS-66 1865 half dollar was $10,500. In May 2020, the CPG (Collector’s Price Guidance) retail value for a CAC MS-66 1865 half was $12,900.

The PCGS price guide value was $16,000. Although price guides are imperfect, the $9,300 price on June 4 was likely a wholesale price rather than a retail price.

On April 23, Heritage sold a CAC verified, PCGS graded MS-66 1863 Three Cent Silver for $4,320. This sale was an upper wholesale price. The Greysheet’ dealer bid’ for a CAC verified MS-66 1863 was $4,300. The CPG-CAC retail price estimate was $5,380. The PCGS price guide value was $5,500. On April 23, 2020, Heritage auctioned a CAC verified, PCGS graded Fine-15 1802/0 half cent for $4,080, which is a key date in the series of Draped Bust half cents. In the April issue of the CPG Coin & Currency Review, the retail price for a Fine-12 (below Fine-15) 1802/0 half cent was $4,180. In the May issue of The CAC Rare Coin Review, the retail value for a CAC verified Fine-12 (below Fine-15) 1802/0 half cent was $4,880.

On May 24, 2019, Stack’s-Bowers sold a PCGS graded Fine-15 1802/0 half cent, without a CAC sticker, for

$4,560. This example and the coin that Heritage auctioned in April 2020 were struck from the same pair of dies.

A long-time copper specialist at Heritage awarded the 1802/0 that was sold in April, an EAC grade of Fine-12. As EAC grades are often much lower than PCGS grades for the same coins, an EAC grade that is just one increment under the PCGS grade is noteworthy and suggests that early copper specialists have a favorable view of the surface quality of this coin. As I have not seen this coin, I am not recommending for or against it, yet I am pointing out that the price paid of $4,080 may be suitable for a profit-hopeful collector.

On February 20, 2020, at a Long Beach Expo, Heritage auctioned a CAC verified, PCGS graded MS-64 1808 half