Donald H. Kagin
AMERICA’S FIRST PH.D. IN NUMISMATICS SAYS THAT COIN VALUES ARE HEADED HIGHER
Donald H. Kagin was born into the numismatic world and started sorting bags of Lincoln cents by date for his father, famed numismatist A.M. Kagin, at the age of five. His love of history and art fueled his interest in collecting coins at an early age, including writing research papers and giving presentations about numismatics while in high school.
While at Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois, Kagin worked with the dean of Arts and Sciences to create the nation’s first Bachelor of Arts degree in Numismatics. This led to him earning the nation’s first Bachelor of Arts degree in Numismatics while simultaneously earning another B.A. in History. Then he pursued graduate studies at the Union Institute and University in Cincinnati Ohio. And he studied at the Smithsonian Institution, Drake University and the American Numismatic Association Certification Service in Washington D.C. He researched at the American Numismatic Society and Johns Hopkins University. All of this resulted in Kagin earning the first Doctorate in Numismatics.
In 1973, Kagin taught his first adult course in “Numismatics” at Des Moines Community College. He later earned a Certified Financial Planner credential from Golden Gate University in San Francisco, California, and in 1984, and again in 1986, wrote the “Tangible Assets Due Diligence” curriculum for the International Association of Financial Planners testing program.
Kagin’s numismatic expertise includes pioneer gold coins and U.S. currency, for which he has written two award-winning reference books, Private Gold Coins and Patterns of the United States and Treasury Notes of the War of 1812.
Since 1968, Kagin has been a numismatic cataloger and editor, including editing the Donlon Catalog of U.S. Large Size Paper Money 4th-6th editions, authoring the chapter on “Treasury Notes of the War of 1812” for Paper Money of the United States, and contributing to the Standard Catalog of United States Paper Money.
He has been a contributor to A Guide Book of U.S. Coins (the “Red Book”) every year since 1978, and a contributor and consultant to independent grading services. His column, “As I See It,” ran in Coin World from 1980-1988. His newsletter by the same name was published from 1988-1991. He was president of the Society of Private and Pioneer Numismatists and edited its Brasher Bulletin from 1997-2016.
Kagin created and published The Currency Market Review (now known as the “Green Sheet”) from 4/1981-6/1983. Other newsletters he authored and published include the Numismatic Financial Planner from 1982-86, Rare Coin Exchange Report 1985-86, and The Numismatic Investor 1986.
Kagin’s articles have appeared here in COINage, as well as in The Numismatist, Coin World, Numismatic News, Coins magazine, The Coin Dealer Newsletter, The Forecaster, Paper Money and other professional publications garnering him many honors.
His academic Monograph,“Monetary Aspects of the Treasury Notes of the War of 1812” was accepted by the Journal of Economic History (to date, the only numismatist to hold this distinction).
Kagin’s passion for numismatic education has also led him to co-develop a numismatic curriculum for the Professional Numismatist Guild Mentor program, the American Numismatic Association “Coins in the Classroom,” as well as serving as the academic dean of the University of Rare Coins.
During the 1980s, Kagin began combining his numismatic expertise with his thespian experiences, to develop, write and
perform award-winning one-man shows in full costume and makeup to scores of numismatic clubs, events, schools, seminars and other educational venues. “Colonial Man” and “The Oldest Living Pioneer” relay first hand the lively, dramatic and humorous stories of numismatic productions resulting from America’s first coinage and its Gold Rushes, respectively.
As president of Kagin’s, Inc. who he says is the nation’s oldest family-owned numismatic firm, Kagin is considered one of the nation’s foremost numismatic investment advisors. His award-winning book, Profit from Gold and Rare Coins Now, which has an introduction by Scott A. Travers, is the most comprehensive treatment of that subject. His work in that area can be found in national publications such as Money magazine, U.S. News and World Report, Barron’s and the Wall
Street Journal. Kagin has lectured and taught across the United States, conducted seminars and educational forums, and made scores of radio and television appearances including the Regis Philbin and Pat Robinson shows, and multiple appearances on Good Morning America, National Geographic Channel and The History Channels.
In 2005, Kagin inspired, shepherded and successfully received congressional approval for minting the 2006 San Francisco Old Mint Centennial Commemorative coins which raised $4.5 million toward the renovation of the Old San Francisco Mint.
Kagin is also known for his creative marketing when he partnered with Amazon.com in building a numismatic trading platform to launch the worldwide sale of the Saddle
Ridge Hoard, one of the most valuable buried treasure finds in history. When the story of the discovery of these coins was announced, over 1.65 million websites worldwide reported the story. When the sale of the 1,429 gold coins was offered online, over half were sold in 24 hours with the total sales approaching $10 million.
Besides cataloging, writing, lecturing and teaching numismatics, Kagin is a member of several numismatic clubs and organizations, has served on several academic, educational and numismatic boards (including eight years on the ANA board, most recently as Vice President). Kagin serves as a board member of the National Coin & Bullion Association, which he co-founded, and the National Silver Dollar Roundtable.
He and David McCarthy helped verify the authentication and promoted the second only Billy the Kid photograph. They also identified the first American coin: the 1783 Nova Constellatio Quint.
Kagin lectures and teaches numismatics internationally, and conducts seminars and educational forums at coin shows, live and online to coin clubs, and has been teaching at the ANA Summer Seminar since 1976.
Kagin serves as a consultant to governments, banks and trust departments, and regularly lectures to money managers, financial planners, and professional investor associations such as Tiger 21 clubs on how to safely and successfully provide alternative hard asset investments to traditional portfolios of stocks, bonds and real estate.
How has the pandemic a ected the hobby and science of numismatics?
Remarkably, the coin market has not only survived but thrived during the pandemic. Being forced to stay at home translated in part to refocusing on hobbies. We and many of our dealer colleagues are having one of the best years ever. Certainly, the precipitous rise in precious metals values has had an impact, but my company deals mainly in classic gold, silver and copper coin rarities including paper currency, and we have seen a surge in collector demand since March of 2020. We have also received numerous inquiries resulting in sales for bullion-related coins from scores of new clients. Some of them have gone on to add rare coins to their portfolios.
On-line numismatic education and commerce was already part of our world before the pandemic, but its arrival caused a necessary urgency to speed up their use to continue to communicate and transact business. Consequently, virtual meetings, educational programs, and online commerce have never been more pervasive.
For example, the pandemic forced coin clubs to meet virtually instead of meeting physically, and scores of clubs began using Zoom, GoToMeeting, and other internet platforms to conduct their monthly meetings. While lacking the personal touch of being together to share your favorite hobby, the virtual meetings allowed not only those that could physically attend a meeting, but also those who usually couldn’t attend. Members who had moved away from the club area, young numismatists not old enough to own a driver’s license, older members who no longer drove, and presenters of educational programs living all over the country, could now attend the meetings.
Also, to some extent, the curtailing of travel has led to numismatic scholars spending more time in researching and writing. As a result, there has been a proliferation of new articles and books being published. The science of numismatics has been expanded in part because of the pandemic.
Indirectly, the impact of Covid-19 on numismatics—at least on the trading market—could end up being quite profound. To combat the negative economic effects of the pandemic, the government so far has authorized $4 trillion worth of new spending, tripling the money supply. Inevitably, this will blow away the Federal Reserve Banks’ plans to keep inflation at 2 percent. Most likely, the Fed will curtail its expansionary money purchasing program (Quantitative Easing) and may soon even raise interest rates to combat the tremendous inflationary effects of this massive new injection of money which is just now taking effect.
I seriously doubt this will be enough to keep inflation in check. Prices for almost everything including labor are going to go higher. When that happens, historically the Number One hedge has been precious metals, followed by classic rare coins and currency. You don’t have to hold a Ph.D. to understand the first principle of Economics 101: When demand increases and supply is either finite or decreasing, prices will rise.
What is the future of coin investing?
In the immediate future, the inability to acquire numismatic material at coin shows and at coin stores that were forced to close has resulted in a lack of material to offer collectors. Now that the doors have been opened, pent-up demand will put even more pressure on the need for inventory to satisfy collectors and investors— resulting in higher prices. We are already seeing that for high-end material.
As mentioned earlier, economic developments resulting from the pandemic have triggered a significant political (and perhaps over) reaction that will have lasting effects for years to come.
When I wrote my book, Profit from Gold and Rare Coins Now near the beginning of 2015, the U.S. deficit was approaching $18 trillion. Today, it is $22.3 trillion and rising quickly. As a percentage of our economy is measured by our Gross Domestic Product (GDP), our nation’s debt has soared from 3.4% to 17.9%. While much of that is the result of the pandemic-related stimulus programs, there is more on the way.
Think about what is going to happen to our money supply, debt and value of the dollar, when the new $600 billion infrastructure bill gets passed. And then look for another $3.5 trillion bill the Democrats are planning to push through Congress. These programs will significantly impact the rise in money supply and adversely affect the strength and value of the dollar.
Conversely, hard assets and numismatic material will inevitably rise in both demand and value. Over the last year, we have witnessed the beginning stages of a bull market with record prices being realized for historically important and great numismatic rarities.
In 2020 alone, over 600 of the finest and rarest coins brought record prices in auctions with eight bringing over a million dollars. And the trend has even increased in frequency in 2021, with the most valuable coin in the world, the only 1933 $20 gold piece legal to own, bringing $18.9 million, smashing its previous record of $7.59 million set in 2008 and eclipsing the last rare coin record price of just over $10 million. We haven’t seen this sort of frequent record-breakers since 1978—1980 and to a lesser extent from 2007—2009. And this is just the beginning.
It’s important to recognize that this sort of increase in numismatic values for significant artifacts is not unique to the collectible field. In so many areas, huge increases in demand are resulting in momentous new price records. In the last several months, a Mike Trout (currently playing) rookie baseball card recently brought $3.9 million; an Action Comics issue #1 featuring Superman realized $3.2 Million, while a John J. Audubon large “Birds of America” lithograph folio sold for $11,570,000 (over 119 known to exist). A few months ago, a Super Mario Brothers game cartridge brought $1,560,000