Cy’s miscalculation

Cy the Cynic had been absent from the club since Tuesday. When he showed up for the Sunday afternoon duplicate, I wanted to know where he had been. “Some friends of mine went on a mini- vacation and asked me to water their plants and feed their animals,” Cy shrugged. “That doesn’t sound taxing,” I said. “They’re farmers,” the Cynic growled. Cy miscalculated as West in today’s deal. When South leaped to 3NT, he must have thought North would produce a better hand for a dummy. ( I would have also. Many Norths would consider a one- spade overcall routine with that hand, but I prefer to have opening values or more, especially when vulnerable.) Cy led a heart, and East contributed the ten. Declarer won with the queen and led the jack of spades. The Cynic took his ace, pondered and shifted to the jack of diamonds. South won with the queen, ran the spades and took three more diamonds to make his contract. “Lead a club,” East sighed, “and we beat it by three tricks.” “Leading from the king of clubs was dangerous,” Cy sniffed. Cy’s defense was clearly wrong. If South has both minor- suit aces, he is sure of at least nine tricks. To beat 3NT, Cy must find East with an ace. If East has the ace of diamonds, South can never make the contract even if Cy shifts to a club and finds South with the A- Q. South will have only four spade tricks, a heart and two clubs. But if East has the ace of clubs, Cy may need to lead a club. If South has the ace of diamonds, he may have nine tricks to cash when he gets in.