USPS data: The Gold Coast a popular spot for out- of- staters
The suburbs of southwestern Connecticut have for years been a popular place for well- heeled New Yorkers looking to get out of the city.
The COVID- 19 pandemic has accelerated that trend, data from the U. S. Postal Service appears to show — and with the local real estate market heating up as well, officials are trying to figure out how many of the moves will be long- term, and what that will mean for demands on public services.
From March, when the pandemic first hit, to the beginning of
June, “there was a noticeable increase in the number of New York license plates, we could see that,” Westport First Selectman Jim Marpe said. “You could sense that in parking lots and so forth. There were more than you might see normally.”
That people with the means to do so would flee the epicenter of a pandemic is no surprise. And towns along Connecticut’s Gold Coast are prime locations for rich New Yorkers’ second homes, real estate data show.
For example, Westport saw a net increase of 516 out- of- state change of address requests between March, when the pandemic first hit the area, and the beginning of June, compared to the same time period in 2019.
Of those, 367 — more than 70 percent — came from tony zip codes in midtown Manhattan, the Upper East Side and Greenwich Village.
But it’s impossible to tell how many of those requests represent movers versus those decamping to second homes, for instance. Or college students who had to move back home during the quarantine and recent graduates who decided to go back to mom- and- dad’s temporarily.
The USPS does not release data for ZIP codes where 10 or fewer address changes occurred because of privacy concerns, and data showing the number of change- of- address requests to leave Connecticut during the pandemic was not immediately available.
More detailed analyses of real estate trends in the area are expected next month, which will help provide more context.
“We don’t know for sure, but there’s an expectation that other people will look to buy, to stay, and those might well be younger families,” Westport’s first selectman said. “I’m sure the challenge of being in New York City the last several months with a young family in a relatively small apartment or condo makes a community like Westport look very appealing, in addition to the things which normally make it appealing.”
If the change- of- address requests are any indication, other municipalities in the area are appealing to out- of- state residents, too.
Bridgeport saw 249 change- ofaddress requests from out of state from March to May 31 this year, up from 58 last year, an increase of 191 — or roughly 329 percent.
Trumbull had 362 more requests. Weston had 254, Fairfield 171, Shelton 155 and Monroe 51.
But not every town saw higher numbers year- over- year. Milford had 233 change- of- address requests last March to May, and only 100 this year, a decrease of 133. Oxford also had fewer requests by 113. The town recorded 150 change of address requests last year to 37 this year. Interestingly enough, all out- ofstate requests for Oxford, last year and this year, from ZIP codes with 10 or more changes were from Florida.
Stratford had 130 fewer requests than last year — but still had 81, from Manhattan, the Bronx and Westchester County.
The numbers show it’s important not to draw too many conclusions from one data set, experts say.
The statistics don’t necessarily reflect new home- buyers coming into the state and include both individuals and entire family units. Short- or long- term renters, or those who own multiple properties and are shifting their primary residence, may also request a change in address.
However, the data indicates the people were planning to stay in Connecticut for at least a little while, since these were requests for address changes and not just those looking to have their mail temporarily forwarded.
Despite extensive data not being available yet, real estate brokers say there has been a noticeable trend, and that it has extended beyond Gold Coast communities.
Sam Pisacreta, a broker at Monroe- based Realty ONE Group Connect, said the market has heated up even in towns like West Haven, not a traditional poster community for rich out- of- state home- buyers.
But now they’re coming “in busloads,” he said, and “buying anything and everything.”
Towns like West Haven are more attractive now because buyers can get more bang for the buck dollar- wise.
“You could put a home on the market on a Friday and it was sold by Saturday,” Pisacreta said. “It’s out of control. And typically we’re over asking ( price).”
Throughout Fairfield County, a property’s time on the market has been down 7.5 percent on average during the pandemic, said Charles Flynn, a broker who works in greater New Haven and Bridgeport who thinks the trend will extend statewide.
“I’ve heard a lot more going on even in eastern Connecticut,” Flynn said. “I think most people are seeing all of a sudden the idea you can work from home and don’t have to be in the city or a proximate train stop to the city. People are finding, ‘ I don’t have to be in southern Fairfield County as much anymore.’ ”
“People are buying homes sight unseen,” Pisacreta said. “I listed a property in Milford on a Friday and ( prospective buyers) watched the virtual tour that Friday and by the evening their agent was writing up a $ 10,000- over- ask offer based on the virtual tour. It’s going to be closing in about a week.”
Another factor — the state’s comparatively proactive response in containing the coronavirus.
“I think there’s the perception that Connecticut is handling the pandemic better,” Flynn said. “Right now, we are trending in the top one or two states in terms of how we were able to reduce it. I think that will factor in. There’s a perception that, compared to some other places, it’s going be safer here and it’s not as densely populated, which is also going to be attractive to people.”
Beyond home- buyers, he said another important question is what will happen with renters.
“There are going to be a lot of people I suspect from expensive rentals in the New York City metro area that may face eviction or break leases and think about Connecticut,” Flynn said.
Of course, how many of those who have moved to the state during the pandemic will stay here long- term remains to be seen.
But officials are keeping an eye on the numbers — and any possible increase in demand for public services that may result.
Marpe said town and school officials in Westport are aware “that there may be an unexpected impact on ( school) enrollment,” but doesn’t expect it to be overwhelming given the school district’s capacity has been increasing. A 2019 report of enrollment projections showed Westport schools, with about 5,400 students in the 2019- 20 school year, dropping to 5,100 students by 2025- 26.
Though state officials said they expect full- time, in- school learning to resume in the fall, many specifics have not yet been spelled out, and it’s unclear how universally it will be embraced.
“We’re paying attention to it,” Marpe said. “It might require some modification of how we’re structuring the teacher population, but then again it may be offset by people who are not comfortable letting their children back to school in September.”