They came, but will they stay in Conn.?

The data is somewhat vague, but anecdotally, the trend seems clear. Elected officials, public school leaders, academics and real estate agents apparently agree: the New Yorkers — and some others, though in smaller numbers — have arrived in Connecticut.

And, possibly as a result of the COVID- 19 pandemic, they’re here in larger numbers than in previous years.

“There’s anecdotal evidence out there and I

hope the census does reflect this migration to Connecticut,” said Lt. Gov. Susan Bysiewicz, whose office oversees administering the state’s 2020 Census. “Because we have a beautiful shoreline, quality of life, great schools and we’re close to big markets.”

According to change- ofaddress requests with the U. S. Postal Service obtained by Hearst Connecticut Media, nearly 16,500 out- of- staters came to Connecticut this year between March 1 — just over a week before the state’s first confirmed coronavirus case — and May 31, compared with 11,204 during that period in 2019.

They came predominantly from New York ( just shy of 10,000 people) and Florida ( nearly 5,500). But residents from other states, like Massachusetts ( 573), Rhode Island ( 174) and New Jersey ( 139) also changed to Connecticut ZIP codes in triple- digit numbers during those three months of the pandemic.

But not all those moves will appear on the census, Bysiewicz explains. The survey asks respondents where they were living as of April 1, 2020. But still, Bysiewicz anticipates an uptick. And from friends around the state — not just from the obvious Fairfield County suburbs, where numbers are, not surprisingly, highest — she’s heard tales of the recent Nutmeg State migration.

“I have been hearing from the Southeastern Connecticut Chamber of Commerce — which covers Madison up through Stonington, that Realtors in that area are reporting very robust sales along the Shoreline — there are bidding wars,” Bysiewicz said. “I’m also hearing in Northwestern Connecticut there aren’t any rental properties available. I know of people who were New York City residents who decided to come to Connecticut because of space. And now in many businesses, you can work from anywhere.”

The data showed six of Connecticut’s eight counties experienced increases in change- of- address requests from out- of- state residents between March and the end of May. Only New Haven and New London counties bucked the trend. And even Connecticut’s most northeastern counties, Tolland and Windham, saw modest increases in out- of- staters in 2020, though most came from Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Florida.

Unsurprisingly, the Gold Coast saw the biggest swell. Darien and New Canaan were both up double digits year- over- year — sizable increases for small towns that pale in comparison to their neighbors, which saw the steepest gains statewide. Westport saw 569 out- of- state change- ofaddress requests between March and the end of May in 2020, up from 53 during that period in 2019. Greenwich was up to 772 in 2020 from 567 last year. And Stamford saw 1,105 in 2020, up massively from 351 during that span last year.

The other largest surge came in the Northwest Hills. Litchfield County, slightly farther but still a popular destination for New Yorkers, jumped from 579 out- of- state address changes between March and the end of May in 2019 to more than 2,600 during those months this year.

Lakeville, Litchfield, New Milford, Roxbury and Washington all saw large increases. And Kent, a town of less than 3,000, saw its requests more than double year- over- year, from 52 to 118.

“That’s a remarkable change year- over- year,” Kent First Selectwoman Jean Speck said. “I think a lot of it is coming to second homes to spend time during the pandemic. That’s all anecdotal, I don’t have any data that we’ve collected on it. But the real estate community in town, they support that, anecdotally. We’re seeing a large number of folks from New York state and we assumed New

York City.”

The USPS does not release data for ZIP codes where 10 or fewer address changes occurred because of privacy concerns, and data showing the number of change- of- address requests to leave Connecticut during the pandemic was not immediately available.

The data includes individuals and entire family units. Short- or long- term renters, or those who own multiple properties and are shifting their primary residence as Speck believes happened in Kent, may also request a change in address.

However, the data indicates the people were planning to stay in Connecticut for at least an extended period of time, since these were requests for address changes and not to temporarily have mail forwarded.

The new arrivals could have implications for individual municipalities and the state. Schools, for instance, might feel the stress of additional students if, in fact, the out- of- staters are in Connecticut to stay and have families. Already, real estate agents are reporting a surge in what was, in many places, a sagging market. And more residents could mean additional tax revenue for the state, as well as a need for better infrastructure.

Gary Rose, a professor and chairman of the department of government at Sacred Heart University, said the pandemic could also have helped to reverse a trend away from urban living and boost Connecticut’s suburbs, which had recently struggled.

And, Rose said, the influx, especially of those from New York City, could have interesting political impacts in smaller, more right- leaning towns in Litchfield County.

“The state overall now is a blue state,” Rose said. “But we still have areas where Republicans can do pretty respectably. It makes me wonder with these New Yorkers coming in, a good number of whom I suspect are Democrats, or lean in a liberal direction, are going to impact some communities in more Republican towns.”

Many Litchfield County towns voted for Donald J. Trump in 2016 and maintain a strong conservative base. Rose speculated the shift could be visible, if not this year, than in years to come.

“We’re in the early stages of the migration,” Rose said. “But it is happening and I do think the social and political implications are probably going to be seen, maybe not so much in this forthcoming presidential election. But I think in local elections in 2021 and maybe the Congressional elections in 2022.”