Trying to talk a crime wave into existence

Americans are hard-wired to believe crime is ever-present and always growing.

And it’s true that crime is worse here than in other rich countries. But the crime rate is also far lower than it was a generation or two ago, for both violent and property crimes, in Connecticut and around the country.

The public never seems to get that message, though, and can be relied upon to react as though they’re in constant danger, regardless of what the numbers show. Politicians who play to those fears are guaranteed to find an audience.

State Republicans are certainly eager to play up crime in Connecticut, which has followed a similar pandemic-era pattern as the rest of the country. Democrats, who hold every major office in the state, have responded that there isn’t a Connecticut-specific crime wave, which has the virtue of being true, but doesn’t necessarily make for a satisfying answer. As a CT Mirror headline put it last month, “Republicans focus on the anecdotal. Democrats emphasize data.”

If the choice is a lurid anecdote vs. a bar graph, it’s not hard to guess what will be more effective.

There’s a recent precedent for this dynamic. In the 2015 Bridgeport Democratic primary, former Mayor Joe Ganim challenged incumbent Bill Finch by highlighting a wave of shootings in the city, holding news conferences at the scene of each new incident and promising to protect the city. Despite numbers showing an overall decline in crime, there really were some terrifying episodes that summer, and the campaign was fought in large part over public safety.

The Finch team, which seemed dumbfounded that anyone with Ganim’s record could be taken seriously on crime, was caught flat-footed, and mostly responded with charts and explanations of how crime was down in the aggregate. That, maybe predictably, didn’t help much, and Ganim became mayor.

That was six years ago. Crime numbers in Bridgeport have continued to rise and fall for a variety of reasons that are mostly out of the hands of whoever is in charge. The mayor isn’t a crimefighting superhero, and the trends that affect public safety are bigger than any one person. But none of that has much salience when voters are worried.

There’s a similar dynamic underway now as state Republicans continue to hammer away about what they call an ongoing crime wave in Connecticut. Like in Bridgeport in 2015, there’s a grain of truth — some crimes are up, specifically homicides, nearly all of which are concentrated in a few cities, as is the case nationally. Overall, many crime numbers are at or near historic lows. That includes vehicle thefts, which have been the focus of much of the concern.

This does not mean Democrats making data-based arguments are not concerned about crime. But neither are they apparently interested in focusing on more punishment, new crackdowns or greater leeway for law enforcement. Those tactics have been tried, and have shown little connection with reduced crime.

Many of the measures Democrats have pushed, including a police accountability bill and a so-called “clean slate” law to reduce recidivism, are not embraced by Republicans yelling loudest about crime, but instead are subject to demagoguery about going too easy on criminals. Neither does that mean Democrats are doing enough — taking on structural issues that concentrate all our problems in the cities should be a top priority, but never is.

There’s nothing new about any of this. The same debates about crime and what to about it have played out for decades, and whatever changes have been made, the system continues to come down hardest on people of color in the cities. The suburbs are overwhelmingly safe places, and yet too many of their representatives try to pretend like the opposite is true.

Connecticut Republicans currently have little authority, but what they’re pushing can’t be ignored, either. The party has come close in each of the past three governor’s races, and could easily be well-positioned come 2022; Gov. Ned Lamont is favored but no one would consider him a sure thing.

Republican leaders bristle at the suggestion they’re rooting for a crime wave. But their motivations don’t matter; their push for retrograde solutions to a mischaracterized problem does. The evidence does not support the answers they’re offering. Whether voters see it that way is an entirely different question.