Sorting out the hardest (and easiest) projected schedules for next season
The NFL’s full 2023 schedule was released on Thursday, revealing, for example, that the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs will host the Detroit Lions to open the season in one of the year’s can’t-miss games.
Of course, we’ve known for months that the Chiefs would play the Lions at some point in the season, but now we have most of the particulars for them and every other team. This gives us a clearer picture and perhaps some new insight into how easy or difficult each team’s slate will be — and lets us start projecting how we think the season might progress.
Looking at strength of schedule can provide reasons to feel optimistic about under-the-radar teams — or instill doubt about presumed contenders. Last year, strength of schedule raised red flags about several teams, including the Los Angeles Rams, Arizona Cardinals and Las Vegas Raiders. The numbers suggested how difficult the upcoming season looked for the Rams after their Super Bowl season, and they ended up winning just five games. The Cardinals and Raiders also went from making the playoffs in 2021 to finishing below .500 last year. The New York Jets were highlighted as another team with a treacherous schedule; they won seven games and finished last in the
AFC East. On the other hand, the Chiefs also looked to have a tricky schedule, and it didn’t stop them from going 14-3 in the regular season on their way to the title.
To determine the strength of each 2023 schedule, we will use subjective methods — including how many playoff teams from last season are on the docket — and objective methods, such as the 2023 regular season win totals provided by oddsmakers, to get a general idea of the strength of a team’s opponents. These win totals also can be converted to an average point spread rating to give us a numerical gauge of how strong or weak a schedule appears to be.
For example, a team with a regular season win total of 10 games has generally been considered two points per game better than an average team by oddsmakers. A team with a win total of six games has been considered 2 ½ points per game worse than an average team. Then we can use those spreads as the inputs for the simple rating system to determine how difficult each team’s 2023 schedule is projected to be. This is preferable to other common methods — especially any that rely on win-loss records from last season as the sole basis for comparison — because it doesn’t rely on stale results before offseason changes such as player movement and the draft.
Having done all that, what can we learn? The biggest takeaway is how difficult the upcoming season should be for the New England Patriots. Coach Bill Belichick will have to scheme his way past both Super Bowl participants from last year, the Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, in addition to seven other games against playoff teams (the Los Angeles Chargers, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, and two each against the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins). There is a lot of travel, too, with the team “hosting” the Indianapolis Colts in Germany along with trips to Dallas, Las Vegas and Denver. The Patriots’ average opponent in 2023 is expected to be o.5 points per game better than an average team, the hardest strength of schedule this season using this method. The under on 7½ wins is certainly worth exploring in the betting markets.
The Chargers will face their most difficult tasks at SoFi Stadium. The Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Dolphins, Lions and Cowboys all come to town. The road trips aren’t a breeze either, and include meetings with the Jets, Vikings and Patriots. In fact, the Chargers — a team oddsmakers have given a win total of 9½ games — have a similarly difficult strength of schedule as the Washington Commanders (6½) and Arizona Cardinals (5½), which should prompt further inspection of under 9½ wins in the betting markets.
Speaking of the Commanders, it doesn’t matter who owns the team. The franchise is looking at a tough road ahead. Washington will host the Dolphins and Bills plus the San Francisco 49ers, all playoff teams last year. It appears possible the Commanders will be favored in only one or two games this season, a daunting path for a team trying to make an impact in the division and beyond.
At the other end of the spectrum are two NFC South teams, the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints. The Falcons open the season at home against the Carolina Panthers and Bryce Young, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft, and will also be in the spotlight when they travel to London in Week 4 to meet the Jacksonville Jaguars, favored to repeat atop the AFC South. However, the Falcons also face the Houston Texans (with a win total of 5½ games, per the SuperBook at Westgate), the Colts (6½) and the Commanders (6½). The Saints similarly face the Texans and Colts, and both teams also have two games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (win total of six games), who no longer will enjoy the services of future Hall of Famer Tom Brady.
The Saints and Falcons both finished 7-10 last year, but their schedules should give them every chance to improve.