Experts: Protests could cause virus spike
The protesters stopped traffic and for periods shut down stretches of highway around Connecticut this weekend in response to the death of George Floyd.
They held signs, took knees and chanted slogans like “hands up, don’t shoot.” In some parts of the state, they clashed with police and were pepper-sprayed.
Many, if not most, of the protesters wore mask. But in the disorder of impassioned demonstrations, adherence to ongoing social distancing measures took a backseat to communicating a political point on racism.
“Obviously, with the march, there wasn’t social distancing,” said Jalin Sead Sr., a Norwalk demonstrator who spoke at the city’s rally, which drew hundreds of demonstrators. “But everybody was doing the steps like wearing a mask. People had hand sanitizer.”
Natalie Rincon, an organizer of #JusticeForBrunch, which coordinated Sunday’s Stamford protest, said similarly. According to Rincon, she and other organizers had consistent messaging to protesters about the importance of wearing face coverings and masks. Organizers distributed masks, hand sanitizer and water and reiterated calls to maintain distance during the protests.
“We at Justice For Brunch plan to organize future demonstrations and events in our community,” Rincon said. “We managed to organize (Sunday’s) protest in 32 hours. We learned a lot from (Sunday’s) march and will take further precautions at the next demonstration.”
Despite attempts by organizers to safely gather, some epidemiologists are concerned the large protests, compounded by more liberal application of social distancing measures, could lead to a spike of coronavirus cases.
“Any time people are together in the same area, there’s always a risk that respiratory viruses or other respiratory pathogens, including COVID, could be transmitted from one person to the next. At protests or any other gathering, there’s that risk,” said Dr. Rick Martinello, medical director, infection prevention for Yale New Haven Health. “So there’s an increased risk. But among the people I’ve spoken with over the last several days and week now, I think everybody understands the urgency that the protesters have in communicating their message.”
According to Martinello, the risk of transmission might be slightly reduced because the gatherings were outdoors, where viral particles become diluted and spread less easily than they might indoors. Protective steps described by Rincon — like mask wearing and hand hygiene — may also be helpful, though social distance is not realistic in such a setting.
Even without the increased exposure from the protests, as restaurants and other businesses begin to open, the risk of transmission is on the rise. With or without protests, a second wave of the virus is expected, Martinello said.
“Of course, over the last several weeks, across many states and cities, economies and societies are opening up again,” Martinello said. “So I’m not sure one’s going to be able to tell the difference between people involved in the protests from the general opening of society in those areas.”
Dr. Majid Sadigh, director of global health at Nuvance Health, said any spike in cases as a result of protests would likely become visible within the next two weeks. The incubation period of the virus is five days and symptomatic carriers generally show signs of illness seven to eight days after infection, Sadigh said.
“At this point in time, we really have to follow public health measures,” Sadigh said. “I know it was a one-time event, but no question in mind, if people broke rules and regulations of public health, we are going to see more number of the cases coming up, in 10 to 14 days.”
Those measures, Sadigh said, were apparently extremely effective and helped to greatly reduce the number of people who might have become infected.
“What we did is we followed public health advisories, stayed home, didn’t travel often, washed our hands, learned about sneezing and coughing etiquette, stayed away from vulnerable populations,” Sadigh said. “I think these measures pushed the virus down.”
But, that success comes at a price. According to Sadigh, in many places, as much as 90 percent of the population has not been exposed to the virus and is thus susceptible. That information, combined with the knowledge that, despite mutations, the virus is behaving similarly now as it did in March when the Connecticut outbreak began, and the lack of a vaccine, is cause for continued social distancing, Sadigh said.
Still, he recognized that adhering to such measures is more difficult for certain groups of people.
“Following public health measures is a privilege,” Sadigh said. “Having a home, extra rooms, not being forced to go out for food, or for life in general, is a privilege.”