Mets may have to face tough reality to keep deGrom healthy
In the final months of this past season, the best pitcher in baseball was often seen shagging fly balls in the outfield, goofing around with his teammates and fielding grounders at shortstop. Jacob deGrom, sidelined from viciously competing in the sport that he loves, was obviously bored. His world-class talent was wasted in the second half of the 2021 season as the human arm on his madefor-pitching body — a 6foot-4, 180-pound slingshot hurling triple-digit heaters — prevented him from putting on the best show across the sport.
DeGrom and the Mets would like to avoid another such year of tending to minor injuries — the ace experienced five different maladies in the past six months — and they may have to accept a heartbreaking reality to put him in the best position to succeed. The 33-year-old wondered aloud last season if his increased fastball velocity (deGrom threw harder than he ever has in his eight years in the majors) was messing with his arm/ body health.
It’s fair to question whether deGrom can stay healthy for a full season by better controlling his velocity and throwing fewer 100+ mph fastballs. Perhaps the solution involves shorter outings and limited pitch counts. It’s depressing to envision deGrom being pulled from a shutout start, for example, simply to prioritize his durability and longevity. But it may be essential for his continued success.
Since 2016, a couple years out from deGrom’s first Cy Young season in 2018, his fastball velo has steadily increased each year. His four-seam fastball averaged 94 mph in 2016, according to Statcast, then 95.2 mph in 2017, 96 mph in 2018, 96.9 mph in 2019, 98.6 mph in 2020, and finally the highest it’s ever been at 99.2 mph in 2021. To put these numbers in perspective, deGrom’s average fastball velo in his first season in the majors was 94.2 mph. In eight years, deGrom has added 5 mph to his heater.
And that’s just the average. We also saw deGrom’s fastball max out at 101 and 102 mph, the latter being a career high, over his past two seasons. The next pitcher in the majors to even come close to deGrom’s fastball velo is Marlins right-hander Sandy Alcantara, who averaged 98.1 mph in 2021, followed by Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, who averaged 97.7 mph. Mere mortals compared to deGrom’s otherworldly success.
DeGrom also pinned most of his five injuries in 2021 on swinging at the plate. A former college shortstop who bats lefthanded, deGrom hit .364 with a .758 OPS this past season, which resulted in his nomination for a Silver Slugger award. He finished tied for third in MLB in hits as a pitcher, despite missing the second half. If deGrom’s aches and pains can be solved with a universal DH, which is expected to be included in the league’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement, the Mets may be able to breathe a bit easier when it comes to their ace.
But pitching is a violent action, and deGrom’s longevity in the big leagues will depend on how well he can limit those arm injuries.
This past season he dealt with back stiffness, right lat and side tightness, right flexor tendinitis, right shoulder soreness and eventually, right forearm tightness. The latter took him out of the running for his third Cy Young in four years. Even when he wasn’t 100% healthy, he was dominating. His 1.08 ERA and 0.55 WHIP were the best in the majors across the first half of the season.
“This is getting old,” a frustrated deGrom said in June before undergoing his third MRI of the season. “I want to be out there competing, and coming out of these games with these little things, hopefully this turns out to be nothing.”
Watching one of the sport’s elite players sidelined with injuries is disappointing for all involved. Before the 2022 season begins, the Mets should at least have a loose plan in place to limit the number of IL stints and MRI tests in deGrom’s future. Whether that plan involves taking deGrom out after five-six innings and pulling him around 80 pitches, or working with him to limit the torque and speed generated for those intimidating fastballs, the solutions may be heartbreaking for deGrom and his fans.
But the tinkering may soon become a necessity to keep a healthy deGrom on the mound long enough to help the Mets make a run for the playoffs. When it comes to the Mets’ ace, there’s a window of contention here. He can opt-out of his Mets contract (signed for 5 years at $137.5 million) after the 2022 season, when he will be 34 years old. The Mets should be making the most of deGrom’s headed-for-Cooperstown career, and they may have to swallow some tough pills concerning his health to get there.