Governor recall effort picks up steam as vote nears

With Californians just weeks away from receiving their ballots for the Sept. 14 recall election, two recent polls indicate a more competitive contest than past polls have up to this point.

On Tuesday, the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies released its latest survey of registered and likely voters.

On the one hand, polling of registered voters placed support for the recall at 36%, the same level of support as the IGS poll found in April and January.

On the other hand, among likely voters, the IGS poll found that 47% of Californians would vote for the recall versus the 50% who would vote against it.

There has long been speculation that this off-cycle election could indeed benefit the recall effort.

Special elections tend to involve lower voter turnout than usual and advantage campaigns with particularly intense levels of support.

Whether Newsom and recall opponents can encourage enough Californians who are inclined to oppose the recall to actually vote remains to be seen.

Given the polling, it will be critical to his ability to defeat the recall.

With such narrow margins, it’s not hard to imagine particularly motivated recall supporters turning out in disproportionate numbers to put the recall over the top in a lowturnout election.

Those inclined to support the recall include 6% of selfidentified Democrats and 46% of independents.

Levels of support among likely voters are highest in Orange County and the Inland Empire, with 60% of likely voters indicating support for the recall.

In Los Angeles County, just 39% of likely voters support the recall.

The IGS survey results come a week after a poll from Inside California Politics/Emerson College that found that 43% of Californians would vote to recall, 48% would vote against the recall and 9% were undecided.

The poll notably found that while 49% of those asked approve of the job Newsom is doing overall, 58% think that in 2022 it will be time for someone other than Newsom to be governor.

Taken together, it appears the recall effort is finally picking up steam.

With rising COVID-19 cases, and the increased risks of wildfires and even electricity problems as California heads into the hottest times of the summer, there are greater windows of opportunity for the recall than existed just a couple of months ago.

On the other hand, the competitiveness of the recall is highly reliant on a disparity between voters generally and likely voters. And even then, for now, recall support remains below a majority of those surveyed.

The closing of the gap will no doubt lead to both sides of the recall campaign working harder than ever to take advantage in the weeks ahead.

How such efforts resonate will be something to keep a close eye on.

But make no mistake: We have a real campaign on our hands.