$700 million for Ohtani? It all makes perfect sense

So $700 million for baseball star Shohei Ohtani was a surprise? Not to my trusty spreadsheet.

Back in July, this “unicorn” athlete who oddly excels at pitching and hitting — then with the Angels — was headed toward free agency after the season ended. Speculation swirled about the heft of his future payday. I could not resist the mathematical opportunity.

My guess (before he injured his elbow in August): a $701 million contract over 10 years, perhaps the most generous estimate one could find.

Last week, we learned the Dodgers and Ohtani agreed to a record-smashing $700 million deal — though most of it will be deferred and paid in the decade after his 10-year playing commitment ends.

My science was relatively simple, as I wrote five months ago: “All the spreadsheet did is take what teams are currently paying top stars and extrapolate those salaries to account for this peerless, two-way phenom.”

Let's say there were doubters. The Washington Post claimed such lofty estimates seemed “extraordinarily high for a player who recently turned 29, an age that historically has been the start of a player's on-field decline.”

Perhaps, they missed my conclusion: “Team owners are billionaires for a reason. They understand quality. They like expensive toys. But they also don't like to overpay. Yet it only takes one to make Shohei Ohtani an extremely wealthy man.”

Self-platitudes aside, several economic lessons live within Ohtani's dealmaking.

California still has sizzle

Sure, the Golden State might not be for everyone. And yes, it takes a pretty fat paycheck to comfortably afford to live here.

Still, Ohtani`s decision to stay is a reaffirmation that California offers huge potential to people or companies who want to reach a massive audience with a cosmopolitan composition and significant wealth.

His move up the 5 Freeway won't cure any California ills. But, at a minimum, Ohtani won't be added to the list of business assets that exited the Golden State.

Star power remains

This is an age in which “influencers” make big bucks on social media, and there's a horde of entertainment streamed through various networks.

That disparate universe of content helps explain why a handful of truly larger-thanlife personalities land commensurate compensation. Say, Tom Cruise or Taylor Swift.

Or Shohei Ohtani.