CU enrollment projected to fall short

During the first two-day meeting of the new school year, the University of Colorado Board of Regents learned that enrollment for the system’s flagship campus in Boulder may not increase as much as officials previously predicted and as a result may lower the campus’ budget by about $7.8 million.

Chad Marturano, CU’S chief financial officer, Friday morning spoke to regents about this fall’s projected student enrollment rates at each of the system’s four campuses. Friday’s meeting followed a longer meeting on Thursday where regents discussed items including its strategic plan.

CU Boulder’s preliminary fall enrollment shows a 0.8% increase from last fall, said Marturano. But that’s 1.4% lower than the enrollment increase predicted in June, he added.

Preliminary data shows a rebound for first-year undergraduate student enrollment to pre-coronavirus pandemic levels with 7,100 students this fall, a 4.6% increase from fall 2021; enrollment for transfer students is projected to decrease by 6.3% from last fall; and continuing undergraduate student enrollment is projected to shrink by 0.4% from last fall.

One high note for CU Boulder’s fall enrollment data estimates that retention rates for first to second-year students will hit an alltime high, Marturano said. Specific data related to this student growth was not readily available on Friday.

“This is what we talked about during the retreat and how we need to increase that retention from first to second year (students),” said CU Boulder Chancellor Philip Distefano, during his campus update Thursday afternoon. “We’ve placed a great deal of emphasis on student success. Last year we formed our undergraduate success team to look at ways that we can better serve our students, and I expect that our efforts will start to pay dividends this year.”

To budget for fewer students than what was initially predicted, Carla Ho’a, vice chancellor and chief financial officer at CU Boulder, said the campus will not make cuts to current faculty or staff but may instead scale back on hiring additional employees because the need won’t be as prominent as previously expected.

CU President Todd Saliman added to the conversation saying when enrollment is higher, more money is spent and the opposite goes for when enrollment does not increase.

“The more students we have, the more we spend because we have to have additional staff, additional faculty,” he said.

Underrepresented populations

In other discussion, Marturano on Thursday led a presentation on CU’S strategic plan efforts, highlighting a new metric the system created that looks at faculty and staff retention, specifically for underrepresented populations. CU already had a metric which allows it to examine its diversity, equity and inclusion recruiting efforts over time, Marturano said.

According to fall-to-fall data for CU Boulder, in 2019, 6% of campus faculty were part of an “underrepresented minority,” population, which CU defines as Hispanic, Black, American Indian, Pacific Islander and multi-ethnic — someone who identifies as two or more races — populations. The data remained the same the following year, and in 2021, it grew to 7%.

The percentage of underrepresented minority staff at CU Boulder is more than double the faculty population, data shows. During the same years, data shows underrepresented workers made up 14% of CU Boulder’s staff. There was no change in 2020, and the number increased by 1% in 2021.

The new metric measures retention rates of underrepresented minority faculty and staff by fiscal year.

In recent years, the data shows a decrease in retention for staff whereas the percent of underrepresented minority faculty members remained about the same.

“When we look at the underrepresented staff, especially at Boulder, we are talking about the frontline workers who are making the lowest salaries,” Distefano said.

“That’s where compensation becomes key to raise those salaries because they can’t live in Boulder if the salaries are low. (For) all staff though, we’re seeing a decline, I think for different reasons. For underrepresented population, I think salary is the crucial issue.”

Each campus will use the data presented on Thursday to come up with their own benchmarks and action plans to boost retention for underrepresented staff and faculty members, Marturano said. Those goals will be presented and discussed during the regents’ February meeting.

“If we lose somebody because they can leave and get paid more someplace else that’s one thing, but if we lose somebody because they don’t feel like this is a place they want to be, that’s something completely different, and that’s not acceptable,” Saliman said. “A lot of the things we are implementing are directed at trying to change that, and this will measure whether we’re successful.”

TABOR refunds, surpluses

Lastly, on Friday, Saliman and Marturano jointly presented CU’S 10-year economic revenue and expenditure forecast, which gives CU officials insight into the long-term outlook for the state’s budget and economy and the effects it may have on higher education institutions.

One highlight from the presentation centered on the impacts the current high inflation rates will have on Colorado’s Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights, which requires the state to refund any tax revenue it collects above a cap calculated based on rates of inflation and population growth.

Saliman said inflation will result in a higher TABOR limit in the future, which will result in the state retaining more revenue over time, which may mean more TABOR refunds for residents like what many Colorado residents received this summer.

If there ever is a conversation regarding what to do with the leftover TABOR dollars, Saliman said it’s important that higher education is part of that conversation.

“TABOR refunds, TABOR surpluses will be significant overtime,” Saliman said.

“This could be a potential funding source for higher education in the future, and I think I want be in the mix if there’s a conversation about that.”