Strength of schedule
Playing the long game? That’s a headache for a coach. Nuggets guard Kentavious Caldwell-pope is hungry for home-court advantage in the West again, no matter what Michael Malone says about prioritizing roster health over the regular-season standings.
“It’s crunch time,” Caldwell-pope said this week in the midst of Denver’s clinical win streak. “We want to be the No. 1 seed.”
At 30, he is the oldest member of the starting lineup Malone is so understandably hellbent on protecting for Denver’s remaining 22 games. But in the heat of the Nuggets’ post-all-star break resurgence, Caldwellpope’s inspired take was equally understandable. Especially considering the context he laid out earlier in the week.
Nikola Jokic sent a text to a team group chat upon his return from All-star weekend, focused on finishing the season strong, according to Caldwell-pope.
The precise details of the text were to be kept secret, but Caldwell-pope emphasized that “it got everybody motivated. We’re looking forward to winning another championship.”
It got him motivated, at least. The text’s whereabouts seem to be as mysterious as its contents. Michael Porter Jr. told The Denver Post he never got it because he lost his phone while vacationing in Cabo San Lucas. Reggie Jackson also told The Post he hadn’t seen the message, suggesting that he might have missed it while on his own trip to Costa Rica.
Whatever the case, the text might not have reached everyone, but the Nuggets (41-19) are collectively locked in nonetheless. Their fifth straight win, Thursday over the Miami Heat, got them within half a game of second-place Oklahoma City and within 1.5 games of first-place Minnesota with 22 games left.
So if the battle for home-court advantage throughout the Western Conference playoffs is about to intensify for the last 25% of the season, what win-loss record must Denver target?
Head-to-head opportunities are key
A four-team race is starting to look more like a three-team race, with the Timberwolves, Thunder and Nuggets getting separation from the Clippers in the standings. Oklahoma City is done playing both Denver and Minnesota, finishing 5-3 against them.
That’s only important in the case of a three-way tie.
The Nuggets have lost their head-to-head series against the Thunder, 3-1, meaning they must finish with a better record to get a higher seed. Minnesota is another story. The last edition of the Tim Connelly Bowl was way, way, way back — Nov. 1 to be exact, when the Timberwolves dominated on their home court. Three of four regular-season matchups remain. Two of those games are at Ball Arena. The results of those games will be the most important factors in deciding the top seed.
The Nuggets control their own destiny, but with minimal margin for error. Win all three, and they jump ahead of
Minnesota in the standings while also clinching the head-to-head tiebreaker, as long as a three-way tie is avoided.
Win two of three, and the Nuggets gain one game on Minnesota to tighten the standings. However, they would likely have to win the top seed outright in that scenario, because the two-team tiebreaker would become winning percentage in division games, favoring the Timberwolves. (Denver would be 7-6 in the Northwest in this hypothetical, pending two crucial results against Utah and one against Portland. Minnesota would be 9-4 in the Northwest, also pending two games vs. Utah and one vs. Portland.)
In a potential three-way tie, Denver would be 3-5 against Minnesota and OKC combined — not good enough.
Win one of three or none of three, and the Nuggets fall further behind Minnesota, likely eliminating them from the No. 1 seed conversation (and making it much harder to catch Oklahoma City for No.
2).
According to Tankathon, the Nuggets’ last 22 opponents held a .496 combined win percentage as of Friday, good for the 18th-toughest remaining strength of schedule in the NBA.
They have an advantage over all three Western Conference counterparts in this regard. As of Friday, the Timberwolves had the ninthtoughest remaining schedule (.513). The Clippers had the 12th-toughest (.511). And the Thunder had the 15th (.505).
Twelve of Denver’s last 21 games are at home, and five of the last nine road games are at losing teams. Only one back-to-back remains (though the second game is against Minnesota on April 10). The Timberwolves still have five back-to-backs. OKC has four.
Plotting a reasonable course
The Nuggets get a couple of their most difficult opponents out of the way this week with Phoenix and Boston in town. But the last collection of home games also includes intriguing visits from Cleveland, New York and again from Phoenix. (Plus Minnesota twice, of course.)
However challenging, the Nuggets probably need to go 9-3 or 10-2 in those dozen games to capitalize on their recent history of Ball Arena dominance.
Anything worse, and the top seed might be out of reach. If you’re building in one road loss to the Timberwolves as part of the map, then 10-2 is even more important.
That would result in an identical home record (34-7) to last season. On the road, it’s simple: Win more than you lose. That probably entails beating at least four of the five lottery-bound opponents to leave room for a 1-3 record against the four winning teams.
It adds up to a 15-6 finish in the last 21 games. Counting on a loss to Minnesota means this exercise is entertaining a scenario in which the Nuggets are likely on the wrong side of tiebreakers. So would 56 or 57 wins be enough to finish higher than both the Timberwolves and Thunder outright, given Denver’s scheduling advantages?