Fretting over finish, first-round foes might be a waste of time
From left: the Avalanche’s Cale Makar, Joel Kiviranta and Devon Toews take a break from the action against the Blackhawks at Ball Arena in Denver on March 4.
One of the most-asked questions of the Colorado Avalanche for the final month of the season: How much does the team care about winning the Central Division and potentially the Western Conference?
It’s top of mind because of how the Avalanche finished last season — both with a furious charge at the end of the regular season to claim a division title that has become a source of pride, but also an early postseason exit when some of that team’s flaws were exposed. A couple of recent trends might help make the answer to that question less important.
The Avalanche has been rolling lately, buttressed by a quartet of new players, the return of Valeri Nichushkin and improved play in net from both goaltenders. In a season where the expectations were clear from the jump — Stanley Cup or bust — how the team is playing has been more important than the results for much of the campaign.
If the Avs are playing well without overtaxing the superstars or overplaying the starting goalie, then there’s little reason to change anything.
“The important thing is to be playing the right way and you’re finding ways to win hockey games consistently,”
Avs coach Jared Bednar said. “So the confidence in your team grows and you feel good about being able to come back on teams, win home and road, etc. It’s important. We’re not going to empty the tank, but we’re going to play to win and hopefully finish at the top of this thing.”
The second part of this is how stacked the Western Conference is. The top of the Central is the best in the league — all three teams at the top are Cup contenders — and the Nashville Predators have surged of late and are now the most successful fourthplace team.
Even if we allow the idea that Colorado could try to win just enough or lose just enough to manipulate its position in the standings and find a favorable first-round matchup, the reality is … there might not be one. If the Avs win the West and earn the top seed, right now that would mean facing the defending champion Vegas Golden Knights in the first round.
If they win the Central but not the West, that likely means Nashville, a club that has beaten them twice this season and is white hot with a goalie capable of stealing games. And if the Avs don’t win the division, that means a first-round dogfight with Winnipeg or Dallas.
“It’s still going to get you a really tough opponent,” Bednar said. “You finish top of the conference or top of the division and (Vegas) is who you’re seeing. That’s not an ideal first-round matchup. Playing Winnipeg or Dallas isn’t either. You try to take the advantages you can, which is home ice.”
The Avs have been the best team on home ice this season, so getting to play four times out of seven at Ball Arena in as many series as possible could be a worthwhile goal.
A recent four-game sweep on the road has also eased whatever concerns there were about the club’s road struggles.
Having Game 7 at home last season didn’t matter, but this is a different team. And if the first-round opponent doesn’t really matter, that small psychological advantage could be the difference.
“I remember this as an opposing player, but it was always when (the Avs) got one, immediately it was ‘don’t let them get two,’ because three and four were coming,” Avs forward Zach Parise said. “The building gets going. It feels like you can’t breathe, because they were all over you. That’s just the way it has been here with this team. Maybe it’s the altitude that plays into that, but I just remember it was always hard coming in here.”
Some of the fretting about potentially having to face Vegas is what the Knights could be if everyone is healthy and playing at a peak level. That version of Vegas is terrifying, particularly with new additions that have essentially made this a $100 million roster.
That version of Vegas also hasn’t shown up at an NHL rink in months. Sure, adding Noah Hanifin and Anthony Mantha makes the Knights stronger, but Tomas Hertl hasn’t played since January. Mark Stone might not be ready for the first round and also hasn’t played in a month.
If Vegas gets rolling and gets everyone healthy, it might be the best team in the league. It also might not have everyone available or at 100% in round one, so maybe trying to deal with the Knights immediately is actually the best time.
Or, the best way to look at it is the Avs are almost certainly going to have a tougher path this season than they did two years ago, so focusing on themselves and the process matters even more than the results and who they may or may not have to play.
“The way we’re playing now, we’re using four lines, pretty balanced minutes coming out of lots of games, we’re using both goaltenders. … We are going to play to win,” Bednar said.