STOPPING CHIEFS’ IS 49ERS’ BIGGEST MATCHUP CHALLENGE
Dual-threat quarterback Patrick Mahomes threatens 49ers’ hopes for a Super Bowl LIV victory over Chiefs
Once the 49ers’ euphoria over getting back to the Super Bowl wears down a bit, they’ll turn their attention to the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes.
And that’s when some uneasiness should set in.
While Kansas City will sense trepidation itself when sizing up their Super Bowl LIV opponent after watching the 49ers rip the Packers 37-20 in the NFC Championship Sunday, the 49ers realize they’ll deal with some familiar trouble.
In Mahomes, the 49ers must contend again with a dual-threat quarterback, against whom they’ve had plenty of trouble defending this season. But what separates Mahomes from the other runor-pass threats they’ve faced — Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson — is his howitzer of a right arm.
At 24 years old, Mahomes already has the look of an all-time great as his three touchdown passes in Sunday’s 35-24 AFC Championship game win over the Titans moved him past Hall of Famer Dan Marino for an NFL-record 86 TD passes in his first 35 games.
Beginning with trying to stop Mahomes, here are three key matchups in Miami that should bear watching on Feb. 2:
Mahomes vs. 49ers defense
Mahomes’ passing ability has been a league-wide concern for defensive coordinators since his rookie season of 2017. The fear became palpable in 2018 when he won MVP honors after throwing 50 touchdown passes. But Mahomes’ ability to hurt defenses with his legs has become a real problem for Kansas City opponents in the postseason. Mahomes has run for 53 yards in back-to-back playoff wins over the Texans and Titans.
In case you missed it, Mahomes turned in an electrifying 27-yard touchdown run late in the first half that gave the Chiefs for good.
If there’s an Achilles heel to the 49ers’ second-ranked defense, it’s been trying to deal with dual-threat quarterbacks. In the five games against Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson, the 49ers have allowed 23.8 points, 67.5 completion percentage, 99.0 passer rating, and 284 rushing yards (56.8 per game). Those aren’t positive signs for a defense that limited offenses to just 166.6 passing yards and only 16.5 points when not facing Wilson, Murray, or Jackson.
San Francisco, which has gone 15-3 overall this season, has two of those losses to Wilson and Jackson.
49ers rushing offense vs. Chiefs run defense
The 49ers appear to have a decided edge on offense against the Chiefs as San Francisco has one of the most prolific running attacks in the game. San Francisco is second-best in the NFL in rushing yards per game (147 yards) as well as frequency of running the ball (49 percent).
Thanks to Raheem Mostert’s four touchdown runs through just three quarters on Sunday. The 49ers have an NFL-best 29 rushing touchdowns. A week after running for 186 yards against the Vikings, the 49ers had 287 yards on the ground in Sunday’s win, led by Mostert’s postseason franchise-record 220 yards.
The 49ers’ rushing prowess allowed Kyle Shanahan to have Jimmy Garoppolo throw just six passes in the second half against the Vikings and then just eight passes against Green Bay, including two in the second half.
All these stats make their matchup against the Chiefs’ defense even more promising. Kansas City was worse than all but six teams this season against the run, permitting 128.2 yards per game. The Chiefs also have given up 4.9 yards per carry to opponents, fourth-worst in the NFL.
Nonetheless, Kansas City did manage to hold bruising Titans running back Derrick Henry to just 69 rushing yards after the 6-foot-3, 247-pounder had three straight games of more than 180 yards on the ground.
The Chiefs have also demonstrated they’ve taken the bend-don’t-break approach to heart on defense. While teams have been able to gain yards, scoring points against them has been an issue for some of them — since Week 11. The Chiefs have given up a league-low 11.5 points.
49ers defensive backs, linebackers vs. Travis Kelce
The 49ers’ George Kittle won’t be the only elite tight end on the field at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium. Depending on who you ask, the Chiefs’ Travis Kelce is either the second-best tight end in the league behind Kittle or even a little better than the 49ers’ All-Pro.
The 49ers haven’t really needed Kittle in order to win games — he had one catch for 19 yards on Sunday after catching just three passes for 16 yards last week against the Vikings. But limiting Kelce’s effectiveness could go a long way toward beating the Chiefs.
The 30-year-old Kelce is usually a big reason for Mahomes’ success, even though he had just three catches for 30 yards in the AFC Championship game victory. Kelce had caught at least five passes in 12 of Kansas City’s previous 17 games.
Kelce has shredded teams with regularity, just ask the Houston Texans, who watched the five-time Pro Bowler catch 10 passes for 134 yards and three touchdowns in their playoff loss last week.
Stopping tight ends hasn’t always been easy for the 49ers defense, which allowed 20 catches for 182 yards in its last three games before Sunday night when Jimmy Graham had four catches for 59 yards, including a 42-yarder when he got past Richard Sherman. There have also been other games when they’ve been bitten in the hind end by opposing tight ends — namely against the Saints’ Jared Cook (two touchdown catches) and the Ravens (seven catches for 75 yards and a TD).