Presidential election winner to benefit from likely recovery
WASHINGTON (AP) — Eventually, the economic recovery will pick up steam — whether Barack Obama or Mitt Romney is in the White House.
That’s what many economic outlooks project. And the president — and the party occupying the Oval Office — will reap some of the benefits.
But first, Obama or Romney, together with Congress, will have to pull back from the widely deplored “fiscal cliff,” the politically created budget abyss facing the nation at year’s end.
The betting on that ranges from mild optimism to nail-biting anxiety. But most economic analysts agree that if Washington resolves that looming crisis, Americans can expect faster economic growth and lower unemployment.
“Regardless of who is president, if the next president is able to nail down these fiscal issues, then I do think we’re off and running,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Politically in the U.S., a strong rebound would be great news for a Romney presidency or an Obama legacy. And it would do much to enhance or repair the brand of either of the political parties, whichever holds the White House, before the 2014 congressional elections and the 2016 White House race.
Jared Bernstein, former chief economist for Vice President Joe Biden, said presidents actually have the greatest impact on economies when markets fail.
Both Obama and Romney have placed great stock in their economic recovery plans during this year’s campaign, Obama with his “balanced approach” of tax increases for the wealthy and spending reductions, Romney with his spending cuts and lower tax rates.
But many economists say the fate of the recovery rests not so much with those specific plans as it does with a bargain — either at year’s end or during the first several months of 2013 — by the new or the re-elected president and Congress that avoids steep and immediate spending cuts and an immediate across-the-board tax increase.