N.H. voters spank mainstreamers
The conservatism that has dominated the Republican Party for decades is in crisis. Capitalism has lost its allure among a large swath of young Americans. And the Clinton and Bush brands are yesterday’s products in desperate need of renovation. These are, admittedly, large conclusions to draw from one contest in one New England state. But politicians and Wall Street would be foolish to ignore New Hampshire’s shock waves. Donald Trump’s success combined with Marco Rubio’s fade reflects the implosion of any sort of Republican establishment. For decades, party leaders ran a con game with their party’s working-class supporters. They gave verbal respect to social and religious conservatism and, throughout President Obama’s time in office, channeled every sort of resentment. But they delivered little of concrete benefit to these voters. The voters noticed, and along came Trump. Trump does not engage in the dainty dance that is the stockin-trade of a Republican estab- lishment that shifts effortlessly from backlash politics to hightoned rhetoric. Trump’s streamof-consciousness soliloquies invoke nationalism, tough talk on trade and a harsh and sometimes racist response to immigration. He roars the anger of his supporters, unapologetically. The network exit poll defined his base: Trump won 46 percent of the ballots cast by those without college educations — those hurting most in our economy — but only 23 percent among those with postgraduate degrees. Trump has exposed the no-longer-hidden injuries of class. As for Rubio, his third place showing in Iowa led both party and conservative movement leaders to coalesce quietly behind him as the man who could stop both Trump and Ted Cruz. The Texas senator gives unambiguous voice to the tea-party and Christian conservative sentiments. His thirdplace New Hampshire finish after his Iowa victory allows him to pivot smartly to more hospitable territory in the South.
One beneficiary of Rubio’s travails is Jeb Bush, who seems well placed to compete in the next battle, in South Carolina. But it shows how far the Bush brand has fallen that the former Florida governor had to count a fourth-place finish with 11 percent of the vote as a victory.
Voters opposed to Trump turned out to be just as interested in authenticity as those who supported him. This, along with a lot of hard work, gave John Kasich his second-place finish and the right to move forward. If Trump offered extremism, Kasich — whose views are actually quite conservative — campaigned on moderation. If Trump offered anger and harshness, the Ohio governor spoke of unity and healing. Republican chaos is good news for Democrats, but they face their own crisis. Bernie Sanders’ victory did not surprise Hillary Clinton’s lieutenants, but his margin did, and so did the astonishing size of the party’s generation gap: Sanders won 83 percent of the ballots cast by voters under 30, and 66 percent among those aged 30 to 44. Clinton carried only the 65-and-overs.