Ryan cautions against backslide
Executive cites recent spike in cases, urges adherence to safety guidelines
The Mid-Hudson Region entering Phase 4 of the coronavirus-related reopening process represents “a make-or-break moment,” Ulster County Executive Pat Ryan said Tuesday.
During a Facebook Live event, Ryan said a “pretty significant” spike in COVID-19 cases that was detected late last week and over the weekend could threaten what has been a steady flattening of the curve “if we’re not careful and if we don’t all do our part to keep it flat.”
Ryan again urged local residents to wear face coverings, practice social distancing and wash or sanitize their hands frequently.
Last week, just days after Ryan announced the launch of a COVID-19 Rapid Response Plan to deal with any uptick in local cases, Ulster County’s downward curve of active COVID cases suddenly turned upward — rising from 119 on July 1 to 169 on July 5.
But the number declined to 143 on July 6, when only three of 494 tests for the vi
rus came back positive, according to data posted online by the county.
The spikes last week, Ryan has said, were tied to a series of Marlboro High School graduation parties, a manufacturing facility in the city of Kingston, an apple orchard and processing facility in southern Ulster County, and a youth softball team that traveled to Pennsylvania and back.
Ulster County has had 1,860 confirmed cases of COVID-19 since the outbreak began in March and 87 fatalities from the virus.
Ryan said Tuesday that “projections going forward” indicate a “worst-case” scenario of 2,256 total confirmed cases in the county 10 days from now, a “most likely” figure of 2,017, and a “best-case” scenario of 1,884.
“We need to recognize that we are still engaged in the fight against COVID,” he said. “Now is not the time to let our guard down.”
He also spoke of the likelihood of “possible COVID waves.”
“Until we have a vaccine, we are really likely to see this roller coaster dynamic of small — hopefully — peaks,” he said.
Ryan said the Rapid Response Plan announced last week was instrumental in helping manage the recent spikes.
The plan includes identifying cases through testing, contact tracing to determine any possible spread, isolation by way of quarantines, keeping the public informed, and continued enforcement of state-ordered restrictions.
Ryan said the plan was implemented this past weekend and “contained a small spark before it turned into a larger fire.”
Regarding HITS
Ryan said by phone later Tuesday that the county is taking virus-related enforcement at Horse Shows in the Sun (HITS) in Saugerties “extremely seriously.”
Ryan said HITS, which was allowed to reopen this week without spectators, has complied with the most recent state guidance regarding sporting events and that the county is working with the town of Saugerties to ensure compliance.
Nevertheless, he said, “if I had my way, HITS would not be operating right now.”
Ryan said his concern is that participants in HITS events have “traveled from outside the state and from places where we know there is a greater infection risk.”
He said county Department of Health workers have performed multiple “spot checks” at HITS and have determined that participants are “wearing masks and keeping distance,” as well as abiding by capacity requirements.
‘Answer the phone’
Ryan said Tuesday that local residents might receive calls that show up on their caller ID as “NYS Contact Tracing.”
He said such calls are being made to people identified as possibly having had contact with a COVID-positive person.
“Please answer the phone,” he said. “It helps us slow the spread.”
Phase 4 begins
The Mid-Hudson Region — while includes Ulster, Dutchess and five other counties — entered Phase 4 of the state’s reopening process on Tuesday, and Long Island will follow on Wednesday. That will leave New York City as the only region of the state still in Phase 3.
Phase 4, according to the state’s website, includes higher education, low-risk indoor and outdoor arts and entertainment, media production, and professional sports competitions with no fans. Also, gatherings of up to 50 people are allowed, twice the limit that’s allowed in Phase 3.
Still prohibited from operating are shopping malls, movie theaters and gyms, though they originally were to be part of Phase 4. Gov. Andrew Cuomo has not said when those businesses might be allowed to open.