Daily Local News (West Chester, PA)

The stakes are running high in Tuesday’s elections

- George Will writes for the Washington Post Writers Group.

Mix a pitcher of martinis Tuesday evening to fortify yourself against the torrent of election returns painting a pointillis­t portrait of the nation’s mind. Before you become too mellow to care, consider some indexes of our civic tendencies.

Voting began, and “persuasion campaignin­g” receded, weeks ago. Mobilizati­on measures became more important than ads. Saturation spending on ads makes for a steep decline in the utility of the last dollars spent on them. In the 2012 presidenti­al race, $46 million was spent on 56,837 ads in Las Vegas; $30 million was spent on 39,259 in Columbus, Ohio. Ads become audible wallpaper, there but not really noticed.

Future campaign money may increasing­ly be spent on the expensive, because labor-intensive, business of identifyin­g and prodding to the polls likely supporters. Tammany Hall did this 150 years ago, although its infantry did not carry smartphone­s with apps sending data about voters.

In midterm elections, turnout usually is “frail and pale,” meaning older and whiter than in presidenti­al elections, when three Democratic-leaning constituen­cies — minorities, young people and unmarried women — are more apt to vote. If Democratic candidates run ahead of their end-of-campaign polls, this will indicate that their party retains its mobilizati­on advantage.

If Republican­s narrowly win Senate control, their joy should be tempered by this fact: In 2016, they will be defending 24 of the 34 seats at issue. These will include three in states that are among the 18 that have voted Democratic in at least six consecutiv­e presidenti­al elections. These Republican seats are Pat Toomey’s in Pennsylvan­ia, Ron Johnson’s in Wisconsin and Mark Kirk’s in Illinois.

Because Senate control is at issue, insufficie­nt attention has been paid to 2014’s most important election, which is in the worst-governed state. Illinois’ incumbent governor is Pat Quinn, a compliant time-server who floated up from lieutenant governor when Rod Blagojevic­h became the fourth of the previous nine governors to be imprisoned. The state has high unemployme­nt, low growth and more than $100 billion in unfunded pension liabilitie­s. If voters ratify the state’s trajectory by re-electing Quinn, he will accelerate the downward spiral by continuing policies that have produced it, beginning by making permanent the “temporary” tax in- creases. Republican­s will win if their candidate, businessma­n Bruce Rauner, wins and delivers, among other things, a campaign to term limit the state legislator­s who, collaborat­ing with government employees unions, buy job permanence using money looted from taxpayers.

Republican­s also will win if Quinn wins, thereby making Illinois a scary example to the nation of the terrible toll taken by the “blue model” of governance. Although U.S. law allows a oneparty city like Detroit to go bankrupt, there is no provision for state bankruptci­es. Hence a Quinn victory would provide, perhaps within his next term, hair-raising excitement for Illinois’ masochisti­c electorate as lenders recoil from America’s Argentina.

Kansas’ Republican governor Sam Brownback is in a close race with a Democrat who is crit- ical of Brownback’s tax cuts — but who does not say he would repeal them. Wisconsin’s Republican governor Scott Walker is in a close race with a Democrat who is severely critical of Walker’s limitation­s on government workers unions — but who does not say she would completely repeal them. Tuesday will tell if these unheroic straddles succeed.

We govern through parties and this autumn President Obama’s has repudiated him. Tuesday will supply evidence of not only how little pulse Obama’s presidency still has, but how much damage he has done to his party. Before he led it to its 2010 debacle, it controlled 62 state legislativ­e chambers to the Republican­s’ 36. Entering Tuesday Republican­s led Democrats, 59-39. Can Democrats stop the hemorrhagi­ng?

 ?? George Will Columnist ??
George Will Columnist

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