Daily Local News (West Chester, PA)
Many elections on tap today in Pa.
How many gubernatorial elections will Pennsylvania hold this November? A trick question? Yes, sort of — but the question reveals an important and too little recognized characteristic of state elections. We vote statewide, but the votes come from 67 counties and seven distinct and diverse geographic regions. Indeed, the state includes such a rich range of political types that it often seems there is more than one Pennsylvania — and on election night, more than one election. the city of Philadelphia — about 10 percent of the voting population of the state. It’s Democrat Wolf’s domain, where he draws almost two-thirds of the vote. Philadelphia registers overwhelmingly Democratic, but actual voting turnout can be disappointing.
Philadelphians are most likely of voters in all regions to call themselves liberals, and least likely to describe themselves as conservatives. It has the largest non-white population in the state, and one of the lowest proportions of college graduates.
Philadelphians are most likely to favor gun control. Education and schools issues are huge here, topping every other region of the state.
Election night question — If voters turn out they will overwhelmingly support Wolf, but without a presidential race, will they turn out? phians, to take a strong pro-life position. Education and schools are driving issues here.
Election night question--Can Corbett appeal to the vestigial Republicanism still present in pockets of the southeast? In the 21st century, statewide elections are often won or lost in this suburban enclave — and this one will be too.
Southwest includes eight counties surrounding Pittsburgh— about 11 percent of the state’s voting population. It’s 36-percent Republican and 53-percent Democratic in voter registration. This is the old mining and mill town part of the state. Taxes and unemployment are the top issues here.
The region usually trends strongly Democratic, but includes many “cultural conservatives” that have and will vote Republican. Nonetheless, Wolf has a substantial large lead here.
The region is one of the most Catholic in the state. Gun ownership here is highest in the state (58 percent) and the region has the lowest percentage of households earning $75,000 or more.
Election night question — This should be one of Corbett’s strongest areas. Do the cultural issues finally grab hold here? If so, it could be one of the surprises of the evening. G. Terry Madonna is professor of public affairs at Franklin & Marshall and Michael L. Young is a former professor of politics at Penn State and managing partner of Michael Young Strategic Research. They can be reached at terry.madonna@fandm.edu and drmikelyoung@comcast.net.