Three teams locks; nine have steep climbs to make tournament
Arizona’s narrow loss at Tennessee on Wednesday evening was the last highprofile, nonconference matchup for the Pac12 before round-robin league play ramps up next week.
The numbers, for your consumption: • Against AP top-25 opponents, the Pac-12 is 2-11.
• Against Power Six opponents, it’s 7-15.
• Against the West Coast Conference, it’s 6-6.
By any measure, the past six weeks have been underwhelming for all but three teams.
As the data below suggests, Arizona, USC and UCLA are locks for the NCAA Tournament.
Everyone else is either on the outskirts of the bubble or nowhere near the bubble.
For those unfamiliar with the NET rankings cited below (or in need of a reminder):
The result of each game played falls within one of four quadrants, based on the NET ranking of the opponent and location of the game. The categorization changes over time as teams move up and down the NET.
Home vs. Nos. 1-30, Neutral vs. Nos. 1-50, Away vs. Nos. 1-75
Home 31-75, Neutral 51100, Away 76-135
Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
For example: UCLA’s victory at home over No. 12 Villanova counts as a Quadrant I win for the Bruins. Essentially, teams want to load up on Quad I and II wins and avoid Quad III and IV losses.
In order of NET ranking:
Arizona
NET Ranking: No. 2
Record vs. Quad I and II: 4-1 Record vs. Quad II and IV: 7-0 NCAA projection: No. 2seed Comment: The loss at No. 8 (NET) Tennessee will have no material impact on the Wildcats’ trajectory. If anything, it removes the pressure of being undefeated entering conference play.
USC
NET Ranking: No.13
Record vs. Quad I and II: 2-0 Record vs. Quad II, IV: 10-0 NCAA projection: No. 5seed Comment: The Trojans are one of five undefeated teams left, along with Baylor, LSU, Iowa State and Colorado State. But their nonconference strength of schedule (No. 247in the Pomeroy efficiency ratings) leaves much to be desired.
UCLA
NET Ranking: No. 21
Record vs. Quad I and II: 2-1 Record vs. Quad II and IV: 6-0 NCAA projection: No. 3seed Comment: The Bruins have played one game since Dec. 1, so expect significant rust once they return to competition.
Washington State
NET Ranking: No. 63 Record vs. Quad I and II: 1-3
Record vs. Quad II and IV: 7-2 NCAA projection: no bid Comment: The Cougars have dropped three of their last four and finish a cupcake-filled nonconference schedule with four defeats. The climb into the NCAAs will be arduous, even from their perch in the 60s.
Utah
NET Ranking: No. 76
Record vs. Quad I and II: 1-3 Record vs. Quad II and IV: 7-1 NCAA projection: no bid Comment: One issue for Utah, and for others in the middle of the pack, is the limited opportunities to collect Quad I wins within conference play.
Oregon
NET Ranking: No. 97
Record vs. Quad I and II: 0-5 Record vs. Quad II and IV: 6-1 NCAA projection: no bid Comment: The Ducks don’t have any bad losses. Had they managed to secure one victory in the Quad I realm, their NET would be within NCAA bubble territory.
Colorado
NET Ranking: No. 107
Record vs. Quad I and II: 0-2 Record vs. Quad II and IV: 9-1 NCAA projection: no bid Comment: Eliminate the big three, and the rest of the conference has a 2-18record in Quad I games. Granted, a few of those are intra-league results. But still.
Stanford
NET Ranking: No. 110
Record vs. Quad I and II: 1-4 Record vs. Quad II and IV: 6-0 NCAA projection: no bid Comment: The Cardinal is ideally suited to play the role of spoiler, except there really isn’t much to spoil. Three teams are set for the NCAAs; the rest are long shots.
Cal
NET Ranking: No. 121
Record vs. Quad I and II: 1-3 Record vs. Quad II and IV: 7-2 NCAA projection: no bid Comment: Had you told us months ago that the Bears would be closer to No. 100 than No. 200at the Christmas break, we’d have wondered about your offseason eggnog intake.
Arizona State
NET Ranking: No. 126
Record vs. Quad I and II: 2-5 Record vs. Quad II and IV: 3-2 NCAA projection: no bid Comment: With the same number of Quad I and II wins as Quad III and IV losses, the Sun Devils have been the model of inconsistency.
Washington
NET Ranking: No. 229 Record vs. Quad I and II: 1-2 Record vs. Quad II and IV: 4-3 NCAA projection: no bid Comment: Not just beaten at home by Utah Valley, which would be acceptable, but blown out at home by Utah Valley, which is not.
Oregon State
NET Ranking: No. 246 Record vs. Quad I and II: 0-5 Record vs. Quad II and IV: 2-5 NCAA projection: no bid Comment: The five teams just ahead of the Beavers in the NET rankings: UC Santa Barbara, The Citadel, Hawaii, Old Dominion and Portland. None of them were in the Elite Eight nine months ago.