Inflation under Democrats vs. Republicans since WWII

Readers think

I'm missing a big piece of the highestin-four-decades inflation story: politics.

The feedback runs from “the real root cause of this hellish inflation is due to the policies of the Biden administration, Democrat Party and their naive, gullible supporters” to “pretty big reason for inflation is not mentioned, “the current occupant of the White House,” to “lying Democrats raise the cost of everything far more than Republicans.”

It's time for the trusty spreadsheet, even though I know, no matter what math I use, somebody will always complain!

To test my audience's theory, I looked at inflation rates dating back to World War II and which party controlled the White House. I also staggered results by six months — so credit or blame for whatever happened in presidential transition years was somewhat shared.

Let me note the president is just one force playing a role in the ever-changing cost of living. The inflation climate is determined by everything from foreign economic and political influences to workerto-boss relationships and the ratesetting Federal Reserve.

The spreadsheet found that over nearly 80 years, inflation averaged 3.69% when Democrats were in command versus 3.59% for Republicans. That's not much difference, but we know politics is a “what have you done for me lately” business.

Looking at the cost of living when Democrats had the White House since 1944, inflation rose in four of five eras — from the year before Democrats gained power to their last year in command.

For Republican presidents, inflation rose by the same metric in just two out of five periods of control.

Caveat

There is one flip side to inflation. It often moves in the opposite direction of unemployment, because you typically need lots of hiring to overheat prices.

So let's look at U.S. unemployment in this same post-World War II period, using the same math: With a Republican in the White House, joblessness averaged 5.7%, slightly above the Democrats' 5.6% rate.

Joblessness rose during all five periods of Republican control and just once under Democrats.

Bottom line

This math shows us that blaming the president — or his party — for inflation is reactionary and silly, no matter who's in charge. The U.S. cost of living, in particular, is often heavily influenced by factors outside the reach of the world's most powerful leader.

Yes, President Joe Biden — a Democrat — has seen inflation

average 6.5% in the past 12 months versus 1.3% in 2020 before he was elected. If this 5.2% jump represented Biden's entire presidency, it would be topped only by Democrat Jimmy Carter's 1977-80 days in the White House, dating back to World War II.

If that's Biden's fault, he also should get credit for unemployment falling from 8.1% in 2020 to a 4.6% average over the past 12 months. That 3.5-point drop was bested only by Democrat Bill Clinton's 1993-2000 White House.

If you ignore politics altogether, the major risk these stats identify for 2022 is — the Fed.

The central bank's twin chores include eyeballing inflation while monitoring the health of the job market. And with the cost of living skyrocketing at a pace not seen in four decades, the central bank is now pumping up interest rates it controls to cool demand for goods and services and hopefully slow inflation.

Can the Fed's imposed chill be done deftly enough that it won't cost millions of jobs?

And you tell me which is worse: Inflation chipping away at your paycheck or not having a paycheck at all?

Memory lane

Here's how U.S. inflation and joblessness fared in the 10 political eras since World War II, defined by the party that controlled the White House.

During the Democrat's stay in the White House (1945-1952), inflation averaged 5.3% — the third-highest of the 10 periods ranked. This post-World War II period saw cost-of-living increases go from 1.6% to 2.3% — an increase of 0.7 point, the fourth-largest since 1945. Jobs during the “Buck Stops Here” presidency? 3.7% unemployment average — the lowest level. But it went from 1.2% to 3% in Truman's last year — an increase that ranks No. 5 of 10.

The Republican's term (1953-1960) averaged 1.4% inflation — the lowest of the periods ranked — going from 2.3% to 1.5%, a decline of 0.8 point, the third-biggest dip. Jobs? 4.7% unemployment average — third-lowest — but it went from 3% to 5.5% in eight years, the third-worst increase.

This Democratic era (1961-1968) of John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson, after Kennedy's assassination, averaged 2.3% inflation — the fourth-lowest. Cost-of-living increases went from 1.5% to 4.2% — a jump of 2.7 points, second-worst. Jobs were plentiful in the Vietnam War boom. The 5% unemployment average was fourth-lowest, and its decline from 5.5% to 3.6% ranked second-best.

This Republican era (19691976) of Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, after Nixon's resignation, averaged 6.4% inflation — the second-highest of the 10 periods ranked. As Arab oil embargoes added to other cost-of-living woes, inflation rose from 4.2% to 5.8% in eight years — an increase of 1.5 points, the thirdworst over eight years. The 5.6% unemployment