California car mandate could hit mechanics hard
If electric-vehicle plan's OK'd, it will result in 32,000 fewer auto repair jobs by 2040 in state, officials project
The pungent odor of motor oil and grease wafts through the air at JR Automotive as Jesus Rojas lifts the hood of a 2014 Honda Civic to inspect its engine.
Gasoline-powered vehicles like this one have hundreds of moving parts and other components that keep mechanics like Rojas busy. Rojas, 42, has spent much of his life refining the specialized skills needed to inspect and repair them.
But as California switches to electric vehicles in its battle against climate change and air pollution, these skills will be needed less and less over the next decade. By 2040, the state projects that nearly 32,000 auto mechanics jobs will be lost in California since electric vehicles need far less maintenance and repair than conventional combustion engines.
“I'm not against electric vehicles,” said Rojas, who immigrated to the Bay Area from Mexico as a teenager and opened his own shop 11 years ago. “I've always loved cars, and I'll work on them until I can't anymore. So we have to adjust. We have to get out of our comfort zones.”
In an effort to transform to a carbon-neutral, climate-friendly state, California's proposal to phase out all new gas-powered cars by 2035 will drive a wideranging transition of the workforce.
Throughout the economy, an estimated 64,700 jobs will be lost because of the mandate, according to the California Air Resources Board's calculations. On the other hand, an estimated 24,900 jobs would be gained in other sectors, so the estimated net loss is 39,800 jobs, a minimal amount across the state's entire economy, by 2040.
But no single workforce in the state would be hurt more than auto mechanics: California has about 60,910 auto service technicians and mechanics, and more than half of those jobs would be lost over the next two decades if the mandate goes into effect, the air board calculates.
The transition would be phased in over a decade: Beginning with 2026 models, 35% of new cars and light-duty trucks sold in California would be zeroemission, reaching 51% in 2028, 68% in 2030 and 100% in 2035. The board will have a hearing June 9 before voting on the proposal in August.
Alex Dirige, 67, an immigrant from Guam who has worked as a mechanic in San Francisco for more than 30 years, worries that the transition to electric cars will threaten the livelihoods of vulnerable groups like immigrants here illegally and cause many auto repair workers to leave the industry altogether.
The trade provides a steady and reliable income in California for many workers with no college degree. On average, mechanics across the state earn about $26
an hour or $54,190 a year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“Many mechanics who have started working see that there's not a long-term future in the auto repair business, with hybrids and electric cars coming out,” Dirige said. “The electricvehicle repair market is just about nonexistent. A lot of them would love to be in the field, but they might choose to go into other types of employment.”
A `slow-moving' change
Mechanics who work on internal combustion engines still would have plenty of work: The rule would not ban sales of used cars, and it wouldn't force the state's residents to stop driving the roughly 29 million gas-powered cars that are already on the road. Californians also could keep importing new or used vehicles from out of state.
That means Californians still will own a lot of gaspowered cars past 2035, softening the blow for car mechanics and industries dependent on fossil fuels, said James Sallee, an economist and research associate at the Energy Institute at University of California, Berkeley's Haas School of Business.
Sallee said the changes wouldn't occur fast enough to trigger a sharp economic slowdown within the auto repair industry.
“It's when there's quick and rapid changes that we think the most harm is done to workers because they can't relocate freely and quickly,” Sallee said. “So it's important people have in perspective that it is a slow-moving process, not a dramatic and superfast shift away from demand for gasoline stations or oil changes. It's going to be something that takes place over a longer time period.”
Electric cars have fewer fluids, such as engine oil, and fewer moving parts than a conventional car. Brake systems also last longer because of regenerative braking, which converts energy from the brake pads into electricity to recharge the battery, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. They also don't have mufflers, radiators and exhaust systems.
Though zero-emission vehicle sales have been steadily increasing in recent years, Californians continue to primarily drive gas-powered cars. Electric cars in 2021 made up about 3% of all cars on the road but 12.4% of auto sales.
Some mechanics doubt that consumer behavior can change as quickly as the air board thinks it will. The proposal would require a massive overhaul of new charging stations and building codes.
“It's nearly impossible to make all these changes by 2035,” Dirige said. “We don't have the infrastructure to go to all-electric vehicles. We barely have it now. And if you ask people, they're afraid they're going to end up with a car that is going to run out of electricity and they'll be stuck somewhere.”
Assembly member Al Muratsuchi, who chairs the Joint Legislative Committee on Climate Change Policies, introduced AB 1966, which would create a state fund to help retrain and transition workers from the fossil fuel industry to other nonpolluting sectors. He said the funds also would offer wage replacement and insurance, pension guarantees, health care options and peer counseling.
The bill, however, would not help auto mechanics.
“We all know that change can be difficult for anyone,” he said. “We need to make the transition to a clean energy economy in a way that doesn't leave anyone behind.”
The Governor's Office of Planning and Research is also developing a “just transition” roadmap to guide state policies.
For now, Rojas said he's focused on the day-to-day operations of his business. The shop is busy, servicing about 40-50 cars a week, and Rojas and his team are seeing more hybrid vehicles. He said he supports the state's plan and hopes other workers in his industry also will get on board.
“This industry, it's always changing,” Rojas said. “But a lot of mechanics, they don't want to change, they just want to do what they're good at, and that's a problem. We need people that are willing to learn because we have to adapt.”