Newsom won big, but support across state dipped
Gov. Gavin Newsom celebrated his second gubernatorial win last month, beating Republican state Sen. Brian Dahle by a never-in-doubt 18.4%. But a closer examination of the 2022 election shows that Newsom's support has eroded since he first ran in 2018.
Several inland counties in Northern and Central California saw Newsom's vote totals drop by about 7%. In a handful of other counties he won in 2018 — including two in Southern California — he failed to gain a majority in 2022. In almost every county in the state, Newsom lost a small percentage of the votes he won when he first ran.
Newsom also survived a recall election in 2021, where 61.8% of Californians voted to keep him in office. He went on to receive 59.1% of the vote in 2022 — nearly a three point drop in support in the one year separating the two elections.
Newsom's political team dismisses the small countywide dips and maintains that winning three statewide elections in four years by a nearly 20% margin — two gubernatorial races and surviving a recall — demonstrates a durable popularity. They also cite his opposition to Proposition 30, which would have raised taxes on millionaires to help more people purchase electric vehicles and to fund wildfire prevention efforts. It failed in November with 42.4% of the vote.
“Any way you cut it, Californians are unequivocally behind this governor,” said Nathan Click, a Democratic strategist and Newsom's former chief of communications.
Three Central Valley counties in particular saw significant drops in support for the governor.
In Stanislaus, southwest of Sacramento and encompassing the cities of Modesto and Turlock, Newsom lost 7 points, as he did in Lassen and Colusa counties. Just south of Stanislaus in Merced, he received 6.4% fewer votes in November than in 2018. In Tulare, he won just 36.4% in November — also a 6.4% drop — despite a better than 34% increase in Democratic registration.
In Kings County, Tulare's neighbor to the west, support for Newsom fell by 5.7%.
Newsom also lost votes in some urban counties, specifically in Kern, Fresno and San Joaquin, where he dropped about 4%.
“These are working-class people,” said Jen Jacobs, a Republican strategist for Congressman-elect John Duarte's campaign. (Duarte beat Democratic Assemblyman
Adam Gray by just 600 votes in one of the country's closest watched races.)
“They're working to live. And I don't believe Gavin Newsom understands people who are working to live,” she said. His Hollywood good looks, connections to wealthy families like the Gettys, and popularity in big, coastal cities “doesn't land with people who work with their hands,” Jacobs said.
The Central Valley has been in a recession for a while, Jacobs said. Shuttered restaurants and businesses were the norm well before the COVID-19 pandemic changed the economy.
“But no one has cared,” she said.
For spending little money and hardly campaigning, Newsom “did just fine,” at the statewide level, said Andrew Acosta, a Democratic consultant. More concerning for California Democrats is the lack of support in the Central Valley.
“As Democrats, how can we do a better job of getting people out to vote in these Latino working-class areas, and talking with them about what they're really concerned about?” Acosta said.
In both San Bernardino and Orange counties in Southern California, Newsom fell short of the majority he won in 2018. In San Bernardino, he received 47.5% of the vote and in Orange, 48.5%. Dahle won both counties.
In Imperial County, east of San Diego, support for Newsom dipped 5.8% — another loss in a place where he'd won the majority in 2018 with 61.7%.
In two conservative Northern California counties, where support for Newsom was already low, voters seemed even less enthusiastic about his second run.
Just 22.7% of Lassen County voters supported him in 2018, and 15.7% in 2022. Lassen also saw a sizable shift in party preference between those two election years. Registration of No Party Preference voters dropped by just over 800, and the Democratic Party lost almost 300 registrants. Meanwhile, the amount of registered Republicans grew by almost 1,200.
In Colusa County, northwest of Sacramento and encompassing the towns of Williams and Colusa, Newsom received 34.7% of the vote in 2018 and 27.9% in 2022, an almost 7 point drop.
“With the 2018 election being a crucial midterm election, there were significantly more Colusa County Democratic activities related to voter turnout, voter registration and canvassing” than there were in 2022, said Ed Conrado, chair of the Colusa County Democratic Central Committee.
Another contributing factor, according to Conrado, was the county's overall support for recalling Newsom.
“Our county overwhelmingly supported the governor's recall in 2021, which may have had an influence on the 2022 results,” he said. Just over 66% of voters supported the recall.
In neighboring Sutter and Glenn counties, Newsom lost support by nearly 5%.
In Lake County, just west of Colusa, Newsom won a majority of votes in 2018 with 51.4% of votes. In 2022, he lost the majority to Dahle, receiving only 48.5%.