Letting some of the air out of China's global ambitions
After the Berlin Wall came down and the Soviet Union collapsed, there was a lot of talk about a “peace dividend,” a chance to throttle back the enormous sums spent on weapons of war.
The attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 burst that balloon.
Putin's invasion of Ukraine burst that balloon, again.
Now, we burst China's balloon — a 200-foot-tall spy ship riding the prevailing winds across the United States before the order was given to shoot it down.
Questions abound: Why did President Biden wait so long? Why is China deploying balloons, apparently six during the Trump years alone?
Here's my theory: China wanted us to shoot down the balloon.
A few weeks ago, courtesy of the Distinguished Speaker Series of Southern California, I had a conversation with retired Admiral James Stavridis, former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO. The admiral had some eye-opening things to say about the People's Republic of China.
In the South China Sea, in a vast stretch of international waters, the Communist Chinese government has been constructing artificial islands by pumping sand from the seabed.
Thus far, 12 tiny islands have been created, with the Chinese military paving airstrips and building docking facilities for armed navy vessels. China now claims these islands and the waters around them as sovereign Chinese territory, an area roughly half the size of the United States.
They justify this absurd violation of international law with convoluted “historic” claims. This matters greatly because 40% of the world's trade travels directly through these waters. As you might expect, the United States objects.
And that's why China sent the balloon to be shot down.
When they are ready to enforce their illegal claim to the South China Sea, China will shoot down something of ours and claim tit for tat.
Fantasy? Maybe. Still, this dangerous scenario is just one of many potential threats no American president can ignore, which brings us to our previous president.
In December of 2019, President Donald Trump announced the creation of a new branch of the United States Armed Forces, the “Space Force.” This announcement was widely mocked online and by latenight comedians and pretty much everyone on the left. Yet, the Space Force may turn out to be the most significant accomplishment of the Trump presidency.
A little history.
In 1890 — yes, that long ago — Captain Alfred Thayer Mahan wrote a book called, “The Influence of Sea Power Upon History 1660-1783.” This book caused a sensation. In the simplest terms, Mahan argued, “He who controls the seas controls the world.” His book was read by Germany's Kaiser Wilhelm II, the British Admiralty, the commanders of the Imperial Japanese Navy, the Czar of Russia and a young assistant secretary of the United States Navy named Theodore Roosevelt.
The impact was immediate and enormous; a massive arms race ensued as the great powers raced to build battleships as well as control distant islands necessary for coaling stations for their expanded navies.
Then, the Wright Brothers made their first flights in 1903 and Mahan's thesis morphed to, “He who controls the air controls the world.”
In the age of satellites and GPS, the dynamic has once again shifted, now incorporating outer space: “He who controls the exosphere — the area immediately beyond earth's atmosphere — controls the world.”
Russia and China know this very well. Both nations have test-fired lasers at target satellites, practicing for the day they will take out our spy, communication and navigation satellites, blinding us in a future war. The Space Force is tasked with preventing this from happening.
As much as I'd like to cling to the magical thinking of the post-Berlin Wall “peace in our time” mindset, human nature both past and present does not give us the luxury of ignoring the potential threat. The Europeans did not believe Putin would ever invade Ukraine.
Should President Biden have had the balloon shot down sooner?
Was there another course he could have taken? The answers to these questions are way above my pay grade — the kind of existential questions that land on every president's desk. Lucky for us I don't have that job.
Does China throttle back on these kinds of dangerous provocations, or will we have to shoot down another one an hour later?