Va. coronavirus transmission rates continuing to decline

Experts optimistic after 4th straight week of this trend

The pandemic might be losing some steam, with four straight weeks of a statewide spreading rate that indicates each infected person is passing the coronavirus to fewer than one other person.

No health district was surging in cases last week — not even Western Tidewater, which previously had an upward trajectory — something public health officials say they’re observing for the first time.

If the trend continues, infectious disease analysts believe Virginia will continue to experience a slowdown over the coming weeks.

The University of Virginia Bio-complexity Institute, which is partnering with the Virginia Department of Health to offer data-based COVID-19 projections, believes this means that even if cases rose by 20% beginning next month, weekly cases still wouldn’t top early August levels.

But predictions are always changing with new information, and slight differences in people’s behavior could dramatically alter the course of the pandemic.

Epidemiologists say slacking off on social-distancing and failing to wear masks around other people can easily change the disease’s impact. They’ll be monitoring how the dip in temperatures will affect transmission. People spending more time indoors and the seasonal flu could factor into how the coronavirus spreads.

In a weekly report, U.Va. analysts working with Virginia said the most recent data suggest a possible increase in cases over the past couple of days. If that new upturn continues, it could influence future forecasts.

Perhaps one reason for the upswing, however, was a data entry problem. The health department reported 1,844 new coronavirus cases Thursday — more than three times as many as the day before — because of a backlog of cases that officials said should have been included in Wednesday’s report.

Public health experts also are observing racial and ethnic disparities in case rates across the state. While hospitalizations climb for all races when cases go up, the highest rates occur among the Latino population.

But some distinct patterns are emerging in certain regions. In the Eastern part of the state, which includes Hampton Roads, the highest case rates are happening among African Americans, though it’s still unclear why.

In Hampton Roads, there were 23 deaths last week: four each in Virginia Beach and Portsmouth; three each in Newport News and Suffolk; two each in Chesapeake and Isle of Wight County; and one each in Norfolk, Williamsburg, and Middlesex, Southampton and York counties.

As of Friday, there had been a total of 147,928 confirmed cases in Virginia and 3,344 deaths. Over the previous seven days, nasal swab tests were coming back positive at a rate of 4.8%. About 2.2 million tests have been given statewide.

The United States’ death tally rose to 212,840 last week, and its case total reached 7.6 million, according to data from Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine. In the world, nearly 1.1million have died of the virus, and there have been 36.6 million cases.

The statewide weekly incidence of the virus — 9.8 per 100,000 people — continues to be well below the national average of 16, according to Virginia public health officials. Put another way, the state, with a population of about 8.5 million, is seeing about 833 cases a week.

Over the past week, Virginia Beach had the most new cases, with another 204 confirmed positive, according to the state health department. But not far behind the more-populated city was Suffolk, with183.

To compare apples to apples, the week’s daily case average in Virginia Beach was 6.5 per 100,000 people, while Suffolk’s was more than quadruple that at 28.7.

The cluster in Western Tidewater — which includes Suffolk, Franklin and Isle of Wight and Southampton counties — is in part the result of an outbreak in Western Tidewater Regional Jail, which led to more than 100 inmates and six staff and contractors testing positive. In Franklin, the rate was 39.2 per100,000.

Mathews County, which is in the Three Rivers Health District, had an average of new daily cases of 34.1 per 100,000 people last week, or about three a day. Public health officials are investigating two recent outbreaks that may have contributed to the spread, including a large wedding, WVEC reported Monday.

Chesapeake had 158 new cases for the week. The city was averaging about 23 cases a day. That’s an uptick for the city, which saw an average of 15 a day over the prior two weeks. Norfolk reported 117 new cases. The seven-day daily case average Friday was 17, slightly up from an average of14 cases reported a week ago.

Newport News reported 106 new cases for the week, with a seven-day daily average of 15 reported Friday. Last Friday, the average was 10 new cases.

In Portsmouth, there were 54 new cases reported in the week. Portsmouth averaged eight cases a day, which was the same as last week. The city averaged around 40 cases a day during its peak this summer.

Hampton had 81 new cases reported for the week. Per the health department’s Friday data, the city was averaging about eight cases a day, also the same as last week.

In James City County, there were five new cases reported for the week. The average was four new cases a day, up from last week’s rate of three.

Accomack County, Gloucester, Mathews, Hampton, Poquoson and James City County reported no deaths for the week.