Lower virus case numbers in Eastern Va. this week

Southwestern section of state sees significantly higher COVID-19 cases

Far fewer tests came back positive for the coronavirus in Eastern Virginia than in other parts of the state over the past week.

The rate was about 4.2% in the area, compared with 5.4% statewide. Virginia’s rate of new cases seems to be driven by a rise in Southwest Virginia, where it’s between 8 and 11%.

Gov. Ralph Northam, who expressed his concern over the disparity at a news conference Tuesday, said Virginia is lucky it has avoided large increases despite climbing cases. But Virginia is not an island, he said, and traveling to states where COVID-19 is having a brutal impact could lead to more infections when they return.

He asked residents to continue taking precautions during the holidays if they are considering travel, even if they’re getting so-called “pandemic fatigue.” Those measures are wearing face masks, keeping a distance of at least 6 feet from other people who aren’t part of your household and washing hands frequently.

“Most people are doing the right thing,” he said, “and they are tired of seeing other folks disregard the rules and disregard the health and safety of other people.”

Neighboring Kentucky and Tennessee are experiencing high spreading rates, which could be impacting Southwest Virginia. If the pandemic stays on the current course, it could mean the state’s cases will continue to trend up into January before dropping again, according to an analysis by The University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute. The center is partnering with the health department to offer data-based COVID-19 projections.

But health experts caution these predictions are always changing with new information, and slight differences in people’s behavior could alter the course of the pandemic.

As of Friday, there had been 166,551 confirmed cases in Virginia and 3,643 deaths. About 2.6 million tests have been given statewide.

The United States’ case tally rose to 8.9 million last week with about 229,000 deaths, according to data from the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine. Worldwide 1.2 million have died of the virus, and there have been 45.2 million cases.

The statewide weekly incidence of the virus remained at 12 out of 100,000 people, according to Virginia public health officials, a drastically lower rate than the surging national incidence of 27.

The incidence rate is the frequency that a new illness occurs in a community over a period of time. That’s not to be confused with a measure of prevalence, the proportion of people who have an illness in a set timeframe, regardless of when they first developed the infection.

In Hampton Roads, 11 people died last week, almost half the tally reported the previous week. Of those fatalities, five were in Virginia Beach, and these localities reported one each: Chesapeake, Franklin, Isle of Wight County, Newport News, Norfolk and Suffolk.

During the past week, Virginia Beach’s cases soared, with another 335 confirmed positive, about 100 more than the new cases tallied the previous week, according to the state health department. The next highest totals were found in Norfolk, with 163, and Chesapeake, with 149. Case counts are expected to be higher in localities such as these with larger populations.

But Franklin, a Western Tidewater city with much fewer residents, continues to have a high rate of infection, though it is dropping. The city had a daily new case rate of 30.3 per 100,000 people. By comparison, the major cities of Hampton Roads were experiencing rates less than 11 out of 100,000 over the same period.

Public health officials say a handful of cases in small cities and counties can have a big impact on new case rates, and Franklin’s rate has been largely traced to small family-type gatherings. In other parts of the region: Chesapeake’s seven-day daily case average was 21 on Friday, up from 19 a week ago.

Norfolk’s daily case average was 23, up from 20 a week ago.

Newport News reported 128 new cases for the week, with a seven-day daily average of 18 reported Friday, up from 16 a week ago.

In Portsmouth, 65 new cases were reported in the week. Portsmouth averaged nine cases a day, down from 11 a week ago.

Virginia Beach had a seven-day daily case average of 48, a 33% increase from 36 the previous week.

Hampton had 68 new cases reported for the week. The city was averaging about 10 new cases a day, essentially flat from nine cases a day a week earlier.

In James City County, 29 new cases were reported for the week. The average was four new cases a day, flat from four new cases a day.

York County had 24 new cases. The locality averaged three new cases a day, up from two.

Suffolk had 47 new cases over the previous week. The city had about seven new cases a day, the same average as the previous week.

Hampton, Poquoson, Portsmouth, Williamsburg, Gloucester, and the counties of York, Accomack, James City, Mathews and Middlesex reported no deaths for the week.