A worrisome, watery future
New estimates of sea-level rise should sharpen focus on the crisis facing Hampton Roads
If you want to see the future of Hampton Roads, here’s how to do it: Pull up coast.noaa.gov. It will provide a glimpse of what’s to come — and drives home the urgent need to move forward, not back, if this region hopes to enjoy a viable future.
That address is the website for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s sea-level rise viewer, which enables users to see a data-driven estimate of how America’s coastline will change as the Earth continues to warm and seas continue to rise.
The website features an interactive component that allows users to see the effects of different water levels. Set that thing to “1 foot” and watch the communities of Hampton Roads transform.
It’s all there: the Chesapeake Bay’s encroachment on Gloucester and Hampton; the James River overwhelming Jamestown Island and the western edge of the Peninsula; the Elizabeth River swamping parts of Portsmouth and Norfolk; the Lynnhaven River spilling all over neighborhoods in Virginia Beach; and the Back Bay and related waterways poised to cut off Sandbridge.
According to new estimates released by NOAA this week, that “1 foot” of sea-level rise will be our reality by 2050. The agency says that’s about the same increase as scientists have measured in the past century and brings into clear focus the urgency of the crisis facing our region.
It “confirms what we’ve known all along: sea levels are continuing to rise at a very alarming rate,” NASA Administration Bill Nelson told a Virginian-Pilot reporter. (NASA is a partner with NOAA on this project.) “It’s past time to take action to address this climate crisis.”
Now you might be thinking that alarmists have been howling about sea-level rise for years. But aside from more frequent, but still generally manageable, flooding, the landscape looks about the same as ever.
And it might not be that bad. But, boy, is that a risky gamble right now, when the data suggests a foot of sea-level rise in the next 30 years.
That’s not a far-off scenario but something residents will see worsen with each passing year. Six inches of sea-level rise will profoundly change our region, much less what will happen when that is doubled.
There’s also a good chance it will be worse than predicted. The data confirms that sea-level rise is accelerating and, here in Hampton Roads, the problem is made worse by subsidence (which means the land is also sinking), amplifying the effects of higher water levels.
Those projections don’t account for extreme weather events, which will be more frequent in a changing climate, or tropical systems, which will be both more frequent and more severe, or a host of other climate-related problems expected to worsen in the coming years, affecting everything from food production to building construction.
No, these new projections reflect the run-of-the-mill, every day, ho-hum flooding that will force some people to relocate from high-risk areas, others to move away entirely and everyone else to live with the effects.
That is further evidence that Virginia cannot wait another minute to act on essential resilience projects to protect vulnerable communities. And it underscores the fact that every gain made in recent years cannot be undone.
Yet, the state House voted this year to pull Virginia out of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, which has provided more than $200 million for flooding projects and low-income energy assistance in the commonwealth. The House also voted to repeal the Virginia Clean Economy Act, which put us on the path to achieving zero carbon emissions by 2050.
The Senate is likely to kill both bills, which is good news. But fighting to hold the line on these issues means Virginia is treading water rather than making the progress necessary to defend Hampton Roads communities imperiled by rising seas.
We know what’s coming. It’s right there in the data and easily viewable for those curious enough to look for themselves. Residents here are right to expect state government to treat this with the urgency that a frightening, watery future demands, not to wage partisan political battles that will have a human cost.