New airlines to hit the skies
Despite so few real successes, the idea of starting a new airline apparently gets to some promoters like the hard stuff. And despite COVID19 and its associated woes, you’ll have a chance to try out a new startup or two this year.
Actually, for many, the most interesting development is the second phase of last year’s major debut: Breeze, the latest go by serial airline founder David Neeleman. Last year saw phase I, with short-range Embraer planes flying short routes among relatively neglected airports in the East and South. Many of us were waiting for Phase II, with new small, long-range A220s (former Bombardier C Series) entering the fleet this year. So far, the new routes have been underwhelming, mainly not much longer than the Embraer routes. But for some travelers — specifically, those looking to escape the small-seat crunch of today’s “main cabin,” the big deal is the proposed fare structure. Breeze A220s have two cabins, five-across economy with both barebones “Nice” and “Nicer” with moderate extras fare options, and four-across “Nicest,” the equivalent of domestic first class seating. And they have lots of those Nicest seats — 36, filling almost half the cabin. As of this writing, for a one-way flight from Tampa to Tulsa, a posting shows fares of $79 for bare-bones Nice and $99 for Nicest. Twenty dollars for a firstclass seat? To me, that’s a no-brainer. The Nice level will attract those who look for the lowest fare, which is competitive with other lines. But just $20 more — maybe up to $50 long haul — for a first-class seat is unique, and it will draw just about anyone who wants to enjoy rather than endure a low-fare flight.
Two brand-new U.S. lines for 2022 are a complete contrast:
Airbahn plans all-economy, very low fare A320 flights linking Southern California with regional cities such as Oakland and Sacramento. The Southern California base hasn’t been announced, but it will likely be Ontario. Unlike the similar Allegiant, Airbahn will likely start up in head-to-head competition with Southwest and other big lines. Some of us are asking, “How will that likely work out?” Fares have not been announced.
Northern Pacific will fly 757s from Asia to the mainland U.S., connecting through Anchorage much as Icelandair links the U.S. to Europe through Reykjavik. With near-direct routes, low fares, and quick U.S. customs in Anchorage, it expects to compete even with nonstops on the major lines. My take, however, is that it is more likely to find markets linking secondary Asian and U.S. cities that don’t enjoy nonstops on other lines. Either way, lots of Alaska stopovers would obviously help. Flights will offer both standard 3-3 economy seating and 2-2 premium seats, with lots of legroom but not lie-flat.
Two new lines are entering the transatlantic battleground, and both seem to be emulating earlier lines that went broke.
Norse Atlantic follows Norwegian’s approach — even starting with a former Norwegian 787
— of low-fare two-class economy and premium economy nonstops from Oslo and (later) London/ Stansted to peripheral airports in three big U.S. destinations: Fort Lauderdale for Miami, Ontario for Los Angeles, and Stewart for New York. In all three cases, ground access to the primary cities is lousy, but the immediate airport areas serve goodsize regional markets.
Play follows WOW in the U.S.-Iceland-Europe sweepstakes, with one-class A320 flights. Fares — already posted — seem great, but after all the near-essential extras, total costs will likely not be game-changing. Baltimore and Boston get the first flights, starting in April, with New York/Stewart added.
I won’t try to handicap the new startups, but at least Northern Pacific’s plan is original. Really low fares are a reliable gimmick — but only if other lines let you retain an advantage. And that’s a big if. For now, I’m happy to be an observer, not an investor.