Oscars 2022
Predictions with ODU’s ‘resident pop culture expert’ and professor Myles McNutt
Myles McNutt isn’t your average Oscars viewer. He’s an associate professor in communication and theater arts at Old Dominion University and has a doctorate in communication arts. Known as the university’s pop culture expert, McNutt has written television criticism on his blog, “Cultural Learnings,” since 2007.
In 2009, he started writing about the fantasy HBO series “Game of Thrones” and gained enough attention that HBO and publisher Chronicle
Books contacted him to write a book. In 2019, he published “Game of Thrones: A Guide to Westeros and Beyond, The Complete Series,” which focuses on the show’s plot and breaks down certain characters and how they came to be.
At ODU, he teaches classes on the media industry, technology, reality television and even theme parks. He also talks to students about award shows, a timely topic since the 94th Academy Awards show is airing March 27. We asked him to predict who he thinks will take home Oscars.
Actor in a leading role
Javier Bardem:
“Being the Ricardos”
Benedict Cumberbatch:
“The Power of the Dog”
Andrew Garfield:
“tick, tick...BOOM!”
Will Smith: “King Richard”
Denzel Washington:
“The Tragedy of Macbeth”
That, to me, is very clearly Will Smith. “King Richard” is a very showcase performance. It’s well regarded. There’s a supporting nomination for Aunjanue Ellis, which gives a good indication of its support within the broader Academy. I think Will Smith is generally very well-liked and his last nominations have come for films that were almost at the wrong time with other roles that were in position.
Actress in a leading role
Jessica Chastain: “The Eyes of
Tammy Faye”
Olivia Colman: “The Lost Daughter”
Penélope Cruz: “Parallel Mothers” Nicole Kidman: “Being the Ricardos”
Kristen Stewart: “Spencer”
Nicole Kidman won a Golden Globe. She has won before.
She’s well-liked in the industry. But there’s two wildcards in the context of this race. One is Kristen Stewart in “Spencer,” a performance that got overlooked by some award shows but it’s been very well rewarded by the ones that haven’t. The fact that she got nominated at all indicates there’s support. Then at
the Screen Actors Guild Awards, Jessica Chastain won for “The Eyes of Tammy Faye.” Of the women in this category, she and Stewart are the only ones who have never won an Oscar before. I feel like that does carry weight, much like Will Smith hasn’t won before. Chastain hasn’t, she’s well-liked, she has been nominated multiple times for various awards. That’s pretty much a toss-up. I feel like that is still a chaotic circumstance on which I would not bet anyone.
Actress in a supporting role
Jessie Buckley: “The Lost Daughter”
Ariana DeBose: “West Side Story”
Judi Dench: “Belfast”
Kirsten Dunst: “The Power of the Dog” Aunjanue Ellis: “King Richard”
There’s Ariana DeBose, who is in “West Side Story.” She came from “So You Think You Can Dance,” a reality-TV-show-to-Oscar trajectory. The other is Kirsten Dunst in “The Power of the Dog,” which is a film that has many nominations — a front-runner for Best Picture. Kirsten Dunst has been largely overlooked over the course of her career. There’s a great narrative there, but I feel DeBose’s performance is undeniable and there really might not be another place — again, I’m getting into the psychology of this — for the Oscars to award “West Side Story.” It’s a film that has many nominations, but ultimately, it’s not really in the front-runner position to win that many of them. I feel like the supporting actress award is an acknowledgment of film in addition to the performer, and so I would say that Ariana DeBose is the likely winner.
Actor in a supporting role
Ciarán Hinds: “Belfast”
Troy Kotsur: “CODA”
Jesse Plemons: “The Power of the Dog”
J.K. Simmons: “Being the Ricardos”
Kodi Smit-McPhee: “The Power of the Dog”
“CODA” is unlikely to compete necessarily for that many other Oscars. Troy Kotsur plays the father. He is a deaf actor. The film tells the story of a teenager who’s kind of grappling with her identity and with the realities of her family and her own goals or dreams. He is fantastic in that movie alongside Oscar winner Marlee Matlin, the previous deaf individual to win an Oscar. It really feels like the race is solidified around the strength of his performance and what that means and the message that it sends. He has given some really powerful speeches along the way. I feel like he’s a clear lock at this point.
Animated feature film
“Encanto”: Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer
“Flee”: Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte de la Gournerie
“Luca”: Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren “The Mitchells vs. the Machines”: Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht
“Raya and the Last Dragon”: Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer and Peter Del Vecho
The easy choice here is “Encanto,” the Disney release that blew up on Disney+ over the holiday; the soundtrack was No. 1 on the Billboard 200 for weeks. Somehow, “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” became a
No. 1 hit single in this country, which is insane. I feel like it’s very much possible that Lin-Manuel Miranda, who did the music for the film, will win an Oscar for “Dos Oruguitas,” which would give him the coveted Emmy, Grammy, Oscar and Tony Awards title. I think the film itself is so much in the public eye and garnered a lot of attention, so it seems like the front-runner. But many of the Critics Awards have gone to “The Mitchells vs. the Machines,” a Netflix release produced by Phil Lord and Chris Miller, who also produced “SpiderMan: Into the Spider-Verse,” which won an Oscar. Each category has its own ebbs and flows and trajectory, but I would say those are the dominant narratives in that respect, with no discredit to the others.
Costume design
“Cruella”: Jenny Beavan
“Cyrano”: Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran
“Dune”: Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan “Nightmare Alley”: Luis Sequeira
“West Side Story”: Paul Tazewell
Every guild has its own award show before the ceremony and they always split it up into periods, so different types of costumes for different contexts. In this case, you have something like “Dune,” which is full science fiction, alternate worlds brought to life, versus something like “Nightmare Alley,” which is a period piece. That’s about how we re-create these fashions and find our take on them. “Cruella,” with Jenny Beavan, who previously won an Oscar for “Mad Max: Fury Road,” is very distinct. It’s partly a film about fashion, which means there’s a lot of specific looks that are chosen, but it’s also a period piece, kind of reimagining these Disney costumes that have their iconic position. Films about fashion often dominate in these categories, so that feels like the safer bet.
Makeup and hairstyling
“Coming 2 America”: Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer
“Cruella”: Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon
“Dune”: Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr
“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”: Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh
“House of Gucci”: Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras
Makeup and Hairstyling is often the weirdest category. “Suicide Squad” won this category. In the case of “The Eyes of Tammy Faye,” you have Jessica Chastain, Oscar-nominated for her lead performance and might be a front-runner, being transformed into a real person known for their heavy makeup. But then you have “Dune,” which is this sci-fi extravaganza, and then you have “House of Gucci,” which is just a bunch of prosthetics on Jared Leto. I think about the prosthetics versus non-circumstance. Prosthetics often are seen as the most involved. I’ll say “House of Gucci” for the sake of argument, but it feels like a hard category to have a clear vision of given that this is a kind of labor and work we don’t know that much about.
Music (original score)
“Don’t Look Up”: Nicholas Britell
“Dune”: Hans Zimmer
“Encanto”: Germaine Franco
“Parallel Mothers”: Alberto Iglesias
“The Power of the Dog”: Jonny Greenwood
Jonny Greenwood, who is in the band Radiohead, has done a number of scores for Paul Thomas Anderson, including one this year for “Licorice Pizza.” He has, generally speaking, been really well regarded for the work he does. The score for “The Power of the Dog” is deeply unsettling and atmospheric and I think captures the mood of that film so effectively. He previously probably would’ve won for “There Will Be Blood,” but he was disqualified because there’s too much existing music used. The moral of the story is I think he’s due and I’m hoping that they will acknowledge him.
Music (original song) “Be Alive” from “King Richard”;
music and lyrics by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter
“Dos Oruguitas” from “Encanto”; music and lyrics by Lin-Manuel Miranda “Down to Joy” from “Belfast”; music and lyrics by Van Morrison
“No Time to Die” from “No Time to Die”; music and lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
“Somehow You Do” from “Four Good Days”; music and lyrics by Diane Warren
It really is, to me, a two-horse race. Lin-Manuel Miranda’s “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” is a huge No. 1 hit. You can hear it on the radio. If you listen to the song, it doesn’t make any sense if you haven’t seen the movie, but he’s not nominated for the song. They didn’t submit it. They submitted the more sad, meaningful, emotional “Dos Oruguitas,” which plays a
very key theme in the film and flashback. I think he has a shot, but the challenge here is that in recent years, James Bond theme songs have not lost this category. Given that fact, at this point, I would argue that “No Time to Die,” Billie Eilish and Finneas’ song that was written for that film, probably remains the default front-runner in this context. She managed to win many Grammys in unexpected circumstances and has a lot of regard in this case. But I would say Miranda’s is the better narrative and the better story.
Best picture
“Belfast”: Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas, producers “CODA”: Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger, producers
“Don’t Look Up”: Adam McKay and Kevin Messick, producers
“Drive My Car”: Teruhisa Yamamoto, producer
“Dune”: Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve and Cale Boyter, producers
“King Richard”: Tim White, Trevor White and Will Smith, producers
“Licorice Pizza”: Sara Murphy, Adam Somner and Paul Thomas Anderson, producers “Nightmare Alley”: Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Bradley Cooper, producers “The Power of the Dog”: Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier, producers
“West Side Story”: Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger, producers
The proverbial front-runner for a long time has been “The Power of the Dog.” It would be Netflix’s first win in Best Picture, which they’ve been fighting for a long time. Jane Campion, who directed it, is likely going to win Best Director, and I think it’s a very traditional Oscar movie. It’s always possible that narratives emerge around Best Picture. “CODA,” which won the Screen Actors Guild Award for Best Ensemble, is on the upswing. I think people liked the movie. It’s very crowd-pleasing. It’s definitely more accessible. Whether, based on how Oscar voting works, that film could potentially ride into that position, I think is an open question. At this moment, “The Power of the Dog” feels like the safer choice in terms of what we would normally expect from the Oscars.
For a full list of nominees, visit tinyurl.com/ OscarNoms2022.