Get ready for hurricanes now
It’s only May, but earlier tropical storms should accelerate residents’ preparations
Though hurricane season formally begins on June 1, the National Hurricane Center will begin issuing its tropical weather outlooks as of May 15. That change, instituted in 2021, reflects the fact that Atlantic Ocean systems are commonly taking shape earlier in the year.
Let that serve as motivation for area residents to also turn their attention to the tropics and begin the work of preparing their families, homes and businesses for another hurricane season.
Researchers at North Carolina State University and Colorado State University both predict plenty of activity in the Atlantic this year. Forecasters from both schools expect about 17-21 named storms, between seven and nine hurricanes, with up to five of those strengthening into major hurricanes.
The CSU team predicts a 47% chance that the East Coast gets hit by a major hurricane (a storm reaching category 3 or greater), and it believes there’s a 65% chance of a named storm coming within 50 miles of Virginia and a 31% chance of a hurricane coming that close.
As always, these are predictions informed by data and the historical record. Conditions can change dramatically, even within a hurricane season. There have been years that the Atlantic was expected to churn out storm after storm only to have those forecasts fizzle.
But, more often, these predictive models are low estimates, as they were last year when an average or below-average outlook ultimately became one of the most active
hurricane seasons on record. Better to expect the worst and hope for the best.
Of course, hoping won’t keep you safe. It won’t keep your family safe. It won’t protect homes or businesses, neighborhoods and important infrastructure. Rather, that requires emergency planning and storm preparations — and there’s no better time than now to get ready.
Longtime residents of this region are well versed in this annual exercise. Each year, they dutifully check their food supplies, replenish water rations, confirm that they have flashlights and batteries, and crank up
the weather radio. They review their evacuation plan with family members to make sure everyone’s on the same page in the event of an emergency.
But Hampton Roads is home to a lot of newcomers too, especially given the number of service members and their families who call this region home — and many hail from places where hurricanes aren’t a threat.
They may not know how much food to have on hand (three days worth) or how much water they might need (calculate one gallon per person per day, and don’t forget about pets). They can find a full list of supplies for a hurricane kit at the Virginia Department of Emergency Management website, vaemergency.gov/prepare.
They may not know about Virginia’s “Know Your Zone” evacuation protocol implemented a few years ago to expedite an orderly movement of people should a powerful hurricane threaten the coast. They can check their address and learn their zone at vaemergency.gov/know-yourzone.
They may not know the value of flood insurance — and not only for those who live along a waterway. Policies don’t take effect for 30 days, so this is the ideal time to determine coverage options and finalize that insurance. Find more information at floodsmart.gov.
The 2020 hurricane season spawned 30 named storms, 11 of which made landfall in the United States. Last year saw similar numbers: 21 storms and four major hurricanes. Those systems inflicted more than $70 billion in damage, primarily along the East and Gulf coasts. Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle were among those hardest hit.
It’s been a while since Virginia was walloped by a storm, but the possibility is always there. It’s renewed each year when hurricane season begins and, as Hampton Roads well knows, a storm need not make a direct hit to inflict considerable damage.
Don’t wait until a system is bearing down on Hampton Roads to get ready. Make a plan, gather supplies, keep an eye on the forecasts and look out for one another.