HOPE IN VIRGINIA’S NUMBERS
Traffic data shows people have heeded governor’s public safety directives
After weeks of record unemployment and mounting death tolls in Virginia — 121 as of Friday — there are signs of good news in the state’s fight against the coronavirus.
Traffic counts from the Virginia Department of Transportation and analysis of smartphone data show Virginians are taking their social distancing obligations seriously, emptying Hampton Roads interstates at rush hour and eradicating the region’s irritating stopand-go traffic.
And there are indications it could be helping reduce the pandemic’s impact, too.
Though there still is plenty of uncertainty, one model — which was created by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington and touted by the White House — has significantly lowered its projected death totals for Virginia. It dropped from 2,000 deaths last week to 891 this week.
“I’m grateful to every single person who is taking this seriously. Virginians are staying home, covering their faces when they have to go out, missing their friends and loved ones, and homeschooling their children,” Gov. Ralph Northam said in a statement. “This is not easy, but I can promise you, it works. Let’s keep going.”
State officials imposed strict containment strategies last month, eventually closing schools for the rest of the academic year and issuing a stay-at-home order until June 10 in an attempt to slow the spread of the virus. Seattle’s aggressive — and quick — response has been credited as a
reason for the pandemic slowing there.
Since Northam issued a stay-athome order March 30, the number of cars on interstates in Hampton Roads has dropped by at least 33.5% each day compared to averages from March 2019, according to data from the Virginia Department of Transportation. On Sunday, it dropped by 56%, the largest amount in the agency’s data.
The decreases aren’t even throughout the region.
When looking at traffic counts on interstates and other primary roads throughout the region from March 25 to March 31, 2020, Chesapeake dropped by about 70% compared to the previous year. They dropped by about 63% in Norfolk and about 50% in James City County, according to the VDOT data.
While a sign of Virginia’s struggling economy, the eerily empty highways throughout Hampton Roads do offer some smoother rides.
Data from INRIX, a private company that compiles information for VDOT and other transportation agencies, shows traffic moving far quicker than normal. On I-64 near the Hampton VA Medical Center, traffic stayed around the 55-mph speed limit during the evening rush hour at the end of March 2020. Traffic slowed down last year to 33 mph, about 20 mph below the speed limit.
Data collected from smartphones show even steeper drops in movement. Statewide, the distances traveled by car, vehicle and on foot fell by roughly 89% on Monday, the latest day available. That is when compared with the median distance traveled on a weekday from February 17 to March 7, 2020, according to Descartes Labs.
Norfolk residents reduced their distance by roughly 95% on Monday while Virginia Beach dropped about 85%.
The data science company, which does geospatial analysis, calculated the maximum distance moved from the first reported location using data from mobile devices.
Data from Unacast, which uses smartphone data to grade how each county and state have been practicing social distancing, reported that Virginians had traveled between 40% and 55% less than normal on April 4, the latest day available.
It hasn’t all been smooth sailing as public health experts and local and state officials have urged people to stay home.
Virginia Beach Bobby Dyer said the city, the largest in the state, had a couple bumps in the road when there was good weather a couple of weeks ago. Pictures of crowded beaches seemed to influence Northam’s decision to issue his stay-at-home order after being reluctant to do so the week before.
But with new data coming in, Dyer said he was now “really proud of the fact that so many people are complying.”
Experts, as well as state and local officials, stress that people need to keep up with social distancing practices and remain indoors in order for the positive gains to remain.
“As we noted previously, the trajectory of the pandemic will change — and dramatically for the worse — if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions,” Dr. Christopher Murray, the director of the University of Washington institute, said in a statement when releasing their latest projections. “Our forecasts assume that social distancing remains in place until the end of May.”
Dyer agreed everyone needs to keep up with the social distancing. Each day, however, is one day closer to this being over, he said.
“One day soon this will be behind us, and we just have to be prepared to come back strong,” he said. “For now let’s continue: Stay at home.”