Hurricane season could be busier than usual
Officials: Between 3 to 6 major hurricanes, 13-19 named storms
On the heels of the first named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season arriving, forecasters expect this year to be busier than normal.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting between 13 and 19 named storms, and six to 10 could become hurricanes and three to six could be major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5). An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, six of which become hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
There is a 60% chance it will be an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below normal season, according to a news release from NOAA.
Forecasters are 70% confident in their predictions.
The prediction is not far off from those released by the experts at Colorado State University last month. Those predictions were 16 named storms, including eight hurricanes and four major storms.
A storm is named when there are winds of 39 mph or higher and it becomes a hurricane when winds reach 74 mph. Major storms, category 3, 4 or 5, all have winds of at least 111 mph.
Hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. So far, there’s already been one named storm: Tropical Storm Arthur. It brought rain and wind to Hampton Roads and the Outer Banks earlier this week, then spun into the Atlantic Ocean and weakened.
Officials point to the combination of several climate factors for the above-normal activity in the Atlantic Ocean this year. There will not be an El Nino present to suppress hurricane activity, according to the release. Also, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, coupled with a few other factors increase the likelihood of a busier season.
On this year’s list of names: Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred.
Last year, there were 18 named storms, including six hurricanes, three of which were major. It was the fourth consecutive abovenormal season. The last time there were four consecutive seasons was 1998-2001, according to NOAA. The three major storms were Dorian, Humberto and Lorenzo.
NOAA had predicted 10-17 storms, five to nine hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes before the season started.