Poll: Luria has lead in 2nd District, seen as bellwether

Rep. Elaine Luria has a sevenpoint lead — 50% to 43% — over Scott Taylor in the congressional race for Virginia’s 2nd District, according to a poll released Wednesday.

Her gains are due largely to her majority support with women, independents and college-educated voters, according to the poll from the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University. Taylor’s 2018 election fraud scandal also continues to hang over him, the center’s analysts said.

The race between Luria and Taylor is being closely watched as a bellwether for the Democrats this election cycle.

Democrat Luria unseated Republican Taylor in 2018 after one term as part of a “blue wave” in which the party flipped enough districts to win back control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Now politicos are waiting to see whether the districts might flip back.

The Cook Political Report moved the race Wednesday from being a toss-up to leaning Democratic.

This month’s Wason Center poll surveyed 807 registered voters in the district who are either newly registered or have voted in at least two recent general elections. Most were via cellphone, with fewer than 200 on a landline.

The margin of error is plus or minus 3.8% at a 95% level of confidence.

More than a quarter of voters have already cast their ballots, the pollsters said. Early voters are tilting heavily Democratic, they said, with Luria getting almost three votes for every one Taylor does.

Luria leads among women by 18 points, 56% to Taylor’s 38%. She’s also taking the vote of 55% of independents — a 34-point lead over Taylor — and 58% of college-educated voters, a 23-point lead.

Taylor has narrow leads among men, white voters and in the 18-44 age group. Luria leads with those 45 and older.

Luria’s base support is stronger, at 94% of Democrats, compared to Taylor’s 87% among Republicans.

Wason Center analysts said the lingering election fraud scandal is weighing him down.

Three of Taylor’s former staffers have either pleaded guilty to or been charged with submitting forged signatures in an effort to get a spoiler candidate on the ballot in his first match with Luria in 2018.

Among voters who say the scandal is somewhat or very important to their decision, Taylor trails Luria by 48 points and has a negative favorability rating.

Overall, the biggest issue driving 2nd District voters is the economy, according to the poll. That’s followed closely by the coronavirus pandemic and health care.

Only 7% of respondents said national security is an issue that drives their vote — notable “considering the heavy military presence throughout the region and with both candidates emphasizing their Navy service,” Wason Center Academic Director Quentin Kidd said in the report.