Analysis: Airline ticket sales fly by milestone

Rising fuel prices may present an obstacle, but the airline recovery in the United States appears to be on track for now.

With the omicron coronavirus variant receding and pandemic restrictions being eased, the airline industry turned a corner last month, according to an analysis by the Adobe Digital Economy Index, which draws on online sales from six of the top 10 U.S. airlines.

According to the analysis, ticket sales for domestic flights in February exceeded those for the same month in 2019, a first since the pandemic began two years ago.

“We’re seeing things open up in terms of people’s thinking about travel,” said Vivek Pandya, who led the analysis. “The question now becomes: How much can that momentum continue to push forward?”

Travelers spent an estimated $6.6 billion on domestic flights in February, about 6% more than three years earlier, according to the analysis. The number of tickets sold was up 4%, while fares were up about 5%, lagging overall inflation.

The data bodes well for airlines, which have been preparing for months for what the industry expects to be a robust summer travel season.

It also matches the optimism that several carriers expressed at an investor conference held by JP Morgan on Tuesday.

Speaking at the conference, executives of American Airlines and Delta Air Lines said they saw record daily sales last week.

In investor updates, Delta said it expected revenue for the quarter to slightly exceed its previous estimates, while United Airlines said corporate travel was improving faster than expected, reaching the highest level since the pandemic began.

American said improvement in revenues would “more than offset” the increase in fuel prices, which have spiked since Russia went to war in Ukraine.

Southwest Airlines said it expected operating revenue in the first quarter of this year to be down 8% to 10% compared with the same quarter of 2019. The airline had previously forecast that operating revenues would be off 10% to 15%.