Gunnevera gets better pace setup

Gulfstream Park gives new meaning to the term “big stakes day” on Saturday with nine stakes, eight of them graded, led by the Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes. The Fountain of Youth is, of course, the local stepping stone to the Grade 1 Florida Derby, a major final Kentucky Derby prep that will be renewed April 1.

Elsewhere, Aqueduct offers the Grade 3, $300,000 Gotham Stakes, the local prelude to the Wood Memorial on April 8. And Santa Anita has the Grade 3, $100,000 Santa Ysabel, which lured the brilliant 3-year-old filly Unique Bella.

Fountain of Youth Stakes

Irish War Cry is very much the one to beat. He was strong in winning the Holy Bull Stakes last time in his 3-year-old and two-turn debut and impressed even if he had an easy, uncontested early lead because he doesn’t strike one as being a true frontrunning type. Irish War Cry gives the impression that he can be equally, if not more, effective from off the pace, which is good for him because there is a lot of early speed in this Fountain of Youth, and he won’t get the same trip he got in the Holy Bull.

But even if Irish War Cry lets the speed go and drops off the pace, he still is at risk of losing critical ground around the first turn and getting locked into an overland trip.

I’m going with Gunnevera to turn the tables on Irish War Cry. Gunnevera, the winner of the Delta Downs Jackpot two starts back, finished second in the Holy Bull after being hustled a bit early to gain position, steadying on the rail on the far turn, and then angling out for racing room. Despite that and his being up against it pace-wise that day, Gunnevera finished a game second. He gets a much more favorable pace setup for his late kick Saturday and is cozily drawn in the No. 2 hole.

One other note: I find it intriguing that trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is persevering in stakes with Takaful after that colt gave way badly as the favorite in the Remsen and Jerome stakes in his last two starts. It is very unlike McLaughlin to overmatch his horses, and one of these days, Takaful might deliver on the promise shown in his huge debut win three starts back.

Gotham Stakes

Maybe it’s foolish for me to go against El Areeb again. I was skeptical of him last time when he romped in the Withers Stakes because his big win two starts back in the Jerome, his route debut, came in the mud, and he was an unknown going two turns on the kind of dry track he caught in the Withers. Still, El Areeb’s Withers score came with a perfect trip, and it’s just my nature to try to upset short-priced favorites coming off perfect-trip wins.

True Timber, who finished second in the Withers after a bad stumble at the start, holds the key to this race for what I’m hoping to have happen. True Timber was sent in the Withers after his bad start to avoid getting shuffled back on the rail and wound up making the pace. But I’m not convinced that True Timber is truly a pace horse, and beyond him, there isn’t a tremendous amount of speed in this Gotham. Except, that is, for Action Everyday, who I’m taking for a front-running upset.

Action Everyday enters off wins at Tampa Bay Downs in the first two starts of his career and pressed a sprint pace in his debut. The addition of blinkers and the presence of an aggressive rider in Rajiv Maragh suggests that Action Everyday will go early. He’s well connected (trained by Todd Pletcher), they paid up for him as a yearling, and I also like Florida shippers in New York at this time of year.

Mac Diarmida Stakes

Never one to give up easily, it’s another chance for Mr Maybe for me.

I liked Mr Maybe last time in the McKnight Handicap, and he never had a fair chance to show what he could do, getting bottled up on the inside behind horses for virtually the entire stretch run. Mr Maybe has back races that are good enough to win this – specifically his John’s Call and Red Smith stakes scores – and he’s reunited with Irad Ortiz Jr., for whom he has done his best running.