Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition
If you can get 2-1 odds on Coasted, jump on it
Although the most prestigious races on Saturday’s Fountain of Youth card at Gulfstream Park come late in the day, some of the earlier stakes hold interest to this horseplayer, notably the Grade 3 Here comes the bride (race 4) and the Grade 3 Fred Hooper (race 5).
The Here comes the bride is appealing because the presence of India Mantuana may result in my top choice, Coasted, starting at a slightly higher price than she ought to be. Private purchases such as India Mantuana are generally overbet the first time out for new connections, and with her now landing in the barn of elite turf trainer Chad Brown, it would not surprise me to see India Mantuana drop from her 7-2 morning line to 5-2 or so.
Hopefully, such betting action will result in Coasted drifting up from her 8-5 morning line to something like 2-1, which would make her a good wager. She is the class of the race, having won the P.G. Johnson at Saratoga last year, followed by a third in the Miss Grillo and a second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies – races in which Coasted lost to New Money Honey, the top grass 2-year-old filly of 2016.
Prior to those stakes efforts, Coasted defeated Dream Dancing – one of her rivals Saturday – by six lengths in a maiden race on grass at Saratoga.
India Mantuana is certainly in top form and much improved on grass, but going 11/16 miles in the Here comes the bride, I suspect she will be vulnerable to Coasted’s powerful late rally.
War Story the pick in Hooper
In the Fred Hooper, the popularity of high-profile connections again figures to influence the wagering, with Green point crusader likely togo favored for trainer Todd Pletcher. Listed at 2-1 on the morning line, he may drop even lower.
The conditions of the Fred Hooper – a one-mile race – play to the one-turn strength of Green point crusader, who has yet to win going two turns, but I still question just how good he is. He won the Champagne at 2, but that race was in the slop against a mediocre Grade 1 group. And his recent comeback at Gulfstream, which resulted in a victory, earned him just a 94 Beyer Speed Figure.
So, I’m going with War Story as an alternative. He has shown significant improvement over his last three starts, finishing fourth in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile, winning the Queens County at Aqueduct, and then finishing fifth in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup.
Admittedly, he lost by 13 1/4 lengths in the Pegasus, but considering that the winner was Arrogate, the best dirt horse in the world, there was no shame in that performance. War Story still outran more than half of the field.
He also benefits from the Fred Hooper coming up soft. There is no one of the caliber of Sharp Azteca, Tommy Macho, or Stanford in this lineup. Many of these are allowance types, in fact.
War Story is a legitimate Grade 3-type horse, a 5-year-old gelding who has made more than $809,000 in his career and placed in a number of graded stakes a couple years ago at Fair Grounds as a 3-year-old on the Derby trail.
Kathballu can close in Spring Fever
Finally, shifting to Oaklawn Park, I like the chances of Kathballu in the Spring Fever Stakes. A 5 1/2-furlong dirt sprint, the race drew an abundance of speed, which may compromise the chances of morning-line favorite Fantastic Style, who perhaps will need to be sent from post 2.
Even without a demanding pace to soften her up, I’m not sold on Fantastic Style. She lost her final three starts of 2016 at short prices, and though second to Finest City in the Grade 2 Santa Monica on Jan. 21 at Santa Anita, there wasn’t much quality to that field aside from the winner.
As for Kathballu, she should relish the opportunity to race on dirt again after a failed attempt sprinting on grass last time out at Fair Grounds, where she didn’t have many race options due to the quarantine there at the time.
Kathballu is at her best stalking the pace in main-track sprints at seven furlongs or shorter, and though she has never raced on dirt at 5 1/2 furlongs, she has often surged to the lead in midstretch to win at longer distances, suggesting that she can get herself into position.