ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, DIG CHARLIE DIG

FIRST RACE

BELLARMINE has sprinted in his last three, but was claimed out of last and immediately stretched out to a longer distance at which he has found past success. Comes out of a good race for the class level, has form that seems to be on the upswing again, and could land a decent pressing trip from this outside draw. Three works since claim and generally has faced higher-class rivals. QUIET MAN just beat a similar field last out for barn that has a high ROI from its most recent sample of laststart winners. Would be more concerned about lack of works had he not won last time showing just one published drill. Unsure whether it’s a good sign that aggressive barn that claimed EVAN’S CALLING two back for $5K tries again for $15K after one-paced sixth at this level last time, or if he was entered to make sure the race went for stablemate Bellarmine.

SECOND RACE

STRISCETTA is hard to trust and will be a short price, but with the leading jockey on Native Wahoo, her odds might wind up more fair than could otherwise be the case. She was supposed to make the lead with blinkers on last time but was away flat-flooted, and then moved wide into a slow pace. She’s neither good nor resolute enough to overcome stuff like that, but can absolutely wire this group if away sharply enough to make early lead from rail. BRITTANY’S BUNNY is the one longer-priced entrant for which a case might be constructed. She’t not exposed in dirt routes and has sprint running lines that suggest she could prefer two turns. Drawn wide, however, and doesn’t have much margin for error. NATIVE WAHOO was in for $20K in her last two after an MSW debut, but not really buying this is a major class drop. She has passed one horse in her three races and probably isn’t quick enough to lead.

THIRD RACE

ART IMITATES LIFE seems certain to be overbet, and while he cuts back to a sprint distance at which he won career debut three back, that victory came by all of a nose. Still, think he can do better than that, and just wasn’t really staying the two turns in last two. Bullet half-mile dirt drill for this, CARSON KAN looks like he might be improving, and held third of 10 last out making turf debut in a sprint at this class level that might’ve had a little more talent at the top than this race? HELLUVA CHOICE took a big step forward when moved back to turf two starts ago, and was a convincing last-out winner of an FG turf-sprint MSW - yet is offered up here for a $50K tag by one of the top outfits in N America. Let’s call that “limited upside.”

FOURTH RACE

PRIVATE HUMOR is 1-1 in one-turn races, her two defeats since a debut win at Delta having come in two-turn sprints. Logical class drop from MSW & alw to $20K N2L claiming. She figures to be overlooked in the betting. TENGEY back on short rest but guessing she can handle the quick turnaround. Guessing she was “given” that MSW debut on turf before second-out surface switch and class drop produced maiden win. Not much of a speed from that race, but she beat a well bet MSW dropper, the top two far ahead of the show horse. Morning-line favorite P BOO makes her first start for a claiming price but has limited upside and is not obviously superior to several here. Using, but couldn’t lean on her.

FIFTH RACE

DIG CHARLIE DIG got onto the FG horses to watch list after his troubled, fast-closing second in a similar spot last time. Also finished well on Ellis grass in his debut last summer, and seems a good bet to at least run back to his last-start comeback race. TRANSATLANTIC KISS theoretically has more room to improve than the top pick since he finished a somewhat troubled third behind him while making his career debut last time out. Blinkers slapped on right away. Popular trainer-jock combo could lead to him actually being favored. SHIRL’S READY a half-length behind the top one in

their common Ellis debut last summer. Long layoff but looks ready enough off works for barn that’s been going well.

SIXTH RACE

TIZ A PARTY split a field at Delta making career debut at a similar distance for twice this maidenclaiming price. Would need only standard secondout improvement to factor at a fair price. NOISY wasn’t facing a lot in career debut for $10K at Delta, but came with a decent middle move and finished all right once straightened out in the short DED homestretch. Might stick a little closer this time.PRINCESS ARWEN has been solid in all three of her starts at similar class levels, and low profile connections ensure a fair price.

SEVENTH RACE

Don’t like this race much at all. The favorite, Gagaoveryou, seems vulnerable at a short price, but the alternatives lack appeal. By process of elimination, and with expectation of Bella Bailar dragging Gaga into a strong enough pace, LEMON SQUEEZE gets the mildest of calls. Her maiden win two back in just her second conventional grass sprint was good enough to get her into the conversation. Raced along rail most of trip last time, went for an inside run at top of stretch, and never got through when horse in front of her steadily drifted toward fence. She can do better. In a perfect world GAGAOVERYOU would stick to a straight 5f, and while she appears to enter in good form, it’s fair to wonder if she has a third straight top effort in the tank. These are questions one could more easily live with at a better price, but strongly suspect she’s going off well below the 5/2 morning line. ATHENA’S AEGIS returns from a layoff for Morley.

EIGHTH RACE

MYOSITIS MYSTIQUE didn’t exactly crackle last time out, but at least showed she can stay two turns adequately. Don’t think turf-to-dirt moves hurts her (might help), and she’s aggressively spotted for a $15K tag. ADA LOVELACE basically was eased in her most recent start, but her two most recent works are telling a different story. The concern is that in her lone decent performance two back she faced only four foes and got an easy early lead. Not sure of upside here. Was it turf, two turns, or just general improvement that moved up EVIL TWIN last time in her second start? If a combination of the latter two, she can win this.

NINTH RACE

Seriously - how many horses could you comfortably rule out in this $30K maiden-claiming turf route? One? Two? Three? Cape Dancer doesn’t do anything for me, and Four Penny Road has shown little in two starts, but even a long price like Don’t Blame Maria is first turf, first maiden-claiming, and has a grass pedigree. It’s a guessing game I think. PATIENCE LOVE was beaten 6 lengths and change in what seems like a solid MSW last out while running the best of her three career races. She’s come back with a decent-seeming work for a barn with good second-after-layoff numbers. Wouldn’t surprise me if EXTRA POINT is 2/1 or lower, but while both her races came in MSW competition, she hasn’t shown a lot of spark. Blinkers on, but if she were showing strong positive signs with hood in morning, why could homebred be in for $30K? FIREPIT QUEEN’s best race among four was her lone start on turf, a sprint, and perhaps she’s better suited to longer races like this.