ANALYSIS

FIRST RACE

A move to turf is the question for the AMERICANIZE. Sharp maiden winner two back, runner-up last out in a fast, productive N1X (third place Denman’s Call won G1 two starts later), lightly raced AMERICANIZE enters as the obvious speed-figure selection. But the gelding’s first three starts were dirt; this is his first try on turf. Progeny of Concord Point have won 10 percent of turf starts; his dam did not start on turf but won three on synthetic. AOTEAROA wheels back in 15 days and drops from N2X to N1X/optional $40k claiming. AOTEAROA is entered for the $40k tag, he has run well on the hill multiple times and should get a good trip positioned right behind the speed. That has been the winning style in turf sprints this meet. STORMY ROCITT is all speed. From the inside post his only option is go. Last out, he finished second in a fast dirt race. Trainer Peter Miller and jockey Norberto currently are rolling, 8-for-10 the past three weeks.

SECOND RACE

CHUCHOTTI enters this maiden-20 filly-mare sprint as the most probable winner on the card. Third last out in a race that produced four next-out winners, she faces easier and is quick enough for a cozy trip outside, tucked just off the speed while shortening to a sprint. Her rivals are suspect. ADAPTABILITY is a 13-start maiden, seven times in the money including both tries on dirt. Claimed for $8k off a dull effort last out at Golden Gate Fields, she has back numbers that figure and might improve first off the claim. SAPODILLA and GLORY RUN are the dubious favorites. SAPODILLA finished second both starts start on dirt including her most recent in which she finished more than five lengths clear of third. The knock is she was odds-on, set comfortable fractions, and still got worn down. GLORY RUN has speed, but so far has shown minimal stamina.

THIRD RACE

Although BROADWAY NIKA finished second at odds-on last out, he ran well enough to be considered the horse to beat at the same $8k claiming level. Last out, wheeling back 16 days after a career-best romp, he made a move at the leaders and then flattened out to finish second. Now he has had a month between starts, and is the obvious horse to beat, though no cinch. WARREN’S JOE T. was claimed last out from a $6,250 claiming win at Golden Gate; his closing style is opposite the top choice. The pace should be legitimate, WARREN’S JOE T. has run well this track ($90.60 maiden-claiming win here 2013). ACCELERANT might have been too close to the pace last out, and lost his punch. He seems best rallying from behind. BROTHER SOLIDER stretches out from a fast-pace sprint. He is quick enough to set the pace.

FOURTH RACE

Front-runner TUSCANY BEAUTY is the one to catch in a starter-allowance sprint that came up soft. ‘BEAUTY set a fast pace last time and finished second in a $25k claiming N2L sprint, she figures to clear this cast and could be long gone. ZANAB, runner-up back-to-back at this level in January, returns from a two-month freshening with an outside post and a closing style that would be effective if the top choice falters on the lead. LATINA MO matched her career-best number last out and enters with a longshot chance. She is likely to be positioned second behind the speed, and would get first run if the top choice falters. She also embodies the “Uncle Mo light bulb” angle. Progeny of the sire Uncle Mo have won a disproportionate rate first start following a maiden win (27 percent, through January). DARING DARLING broke slowly and lost all chance vs. lesser. Claimed for $12.5k, she moves up in class and has a chance with a clean takeoff.

FIFTH RACE

This N1X turf sprint is a split of the first race, with the same dilemma as the opener. That is, a sharp dirt horse moving to grass. But at least INDAVIDUALIST has run well on turf, a third-place finish after early trouble racing five furlongs at Del Mar. Fifth and fourth in a pair of highly rated dirt races afterward, he returns to grass and should get a good trip on or near the lead in a race without much speed. TRIBAL FIGHTER misfired in a stakes last out; he missed by a nose in both previous N1X

turf sprints here during the fall meet. Productive trainer-jockey combo entered with the week 8-for24. INCENSED tossed in a dud in his first California start, but he was a recent arrival from Florida without a chance to settle in. Now he has had a month since raced, posted three works at San Luis Rey, and has the meet’s leading trainer-jockey combo. Peter Miller and Norberto Arroyo entered the week 14-for-25. LAUREN’S LADD will be rolling late; BRIMSTONED seems to be using this as a prep; DADDY D T also will finish, first-time Flavien Prat.

SIXTH RACE

Comebacker WHISKEY TICKET gets top billing in this N2X route, based on top figures and a history of running well fresh. He has not started in 11 months, but won his career debut two years ago over a route of ground, and missed by a head in a highly rated N2X here last March in a comeback. The lightly raced (2-for-5) Ghostzapper colt won the G3 Illinois Derby his second start, and should come back firing. But this race is deep. RIVER ECHO switched to dirt and ran super last out, winning a N1X with a big number. The fifth-place finisher and runner-up came back to finish onetwo. RIVER ECHO figures to be forwardly placed, pressing the pace likely to be set by stretch-out stablemate TEXAS TWO STEP. The latter missed by a neck last out in a fast sprint; unsure if he really wants two turns, but he is fast enough to set the pace. HOFFENHEIM, gelded since raced, will be running late. IKE WALKER is a 7-for-27 pro dropping from a G2 sprint; GOT EVEN faces a challenging pace scenario. He runs best setting a slow tempo.

SEVENTH RACE

A perplexing turf route, $25k claiming N2L, will be run with the rails at 30 feet. Only eight of the 14 entrants will be allowed to start. SILENT MOVIES won a synthetic-surface maiden-20 last out at Golden Gate; his Southern California turf form includes several in-the-money finishes and a maiden special-weight “win” from which he was disqualified. Pending scratches, the front-runner/ pace-presser could get a beneficial pace scenario in a race without much speed. Also-eligible FORMULATE drops from open $40k claiming and will try to win from behind. HE COULD also drops, from open $50k, with a closing style that puts him at a tactical disadvantage compared to the top choice. BARTON LODGE has been gelded since raced; BLUE LAW stretches out and could influence the pace scenario. This is a puzzling race.

EIGHTH RACE

DISCRETA cracked in her comeback, but the fast pace may have had something to do with it. She drops to the level of her promising runner-up debut, takes off blinkers and figures to be setting or pressing softer fractions at seven furlongs. OUTA HERE drops from special-weight to maiden30 and will be running late. IRISH DAME also is first-time claim tag, although her ability on dirt is unknown. She has been running exclusively on turf following her sixth-place dirt debut last fall.

BEST BET: RACE 2, CHUCHOTTI