ANALYSIS

FIRST RACE

MR DOUBLE STANDARD makes his 2nd start off the claim and trainer Justin Johns is exceptional with such runners, scoring at 36% with a $2.48 ROI according to DRF Formulator stats; cuts back to 5 1/2 furlongs, the distance he won at two back. SMART AND TRUE certainly benefited from the race flow in his latest but he also earned a decent figure; dangerous here if able to run back to that effort/Beyer. WHERE’S THAT CAT has tactical speed and should be in good position just off the speeds; better than a length in front of the top pick in their last meeting and he’s a logical contender off that line, as he’s the one to beat if he can run back to it.

SECOND RACE

LA INDIA ANACAONA has had her chances, and she had the race flow in her favor in her latest, but she meets a relatively weak field here and she’s going to be tough based on her most recent Beyers; she likes to be close up early but she can also rate and make one run. MY FIRST HONEY was a neck in front of the top pick in their last meeting and she’s the main foe to that runner today as well; loves to run 2nd, which makes taking a short price a little dicey. TELLING TALES had trouble at the start in her latest and the race two back, when in against LA INDIA ANACAONA, came up fast; may be right value play for exotics.

THIRD RACE

CHOCOMINT was against the race flow in each of his last two starts, and though he could not catch up with runner-up QUANAHS REVENGE in that race he has license to turn the tables on that rival today with an improved set up; barn excels with horses making their second starts following a layoff. J. D. SATURDAY had little chance to close in that paceless race last time (note inverted “S” in PP line for last race, indicating the race flow greatly favored Speeds) and he figures to fare better here if he gets a contested pace; two turns main question but he is bred to handle extra distance. SPARKLIN BRIGHT makes his second start for trainer Aldana Gonzalez, who has had success of late with “2nd-time starters”.

FOURTH RACE

In that last one, IMPECCABLE LADY was not trying to overcome the pace scenario — which favored speeds — but she was also a decent 2nd in a race which came up much faster than par for the class and distance; solid works since that run only add to the appeal. RAISEDTOBEAWARRIOR ran a deceptively good race for the show in her latest, a sprint which featured a two-speed exacta; she ran on well enough at the end of that race following a slow start and she could be a stretch threat at a price today. PERHAPS SOME DRAMA exits consecutive races which featured above-average speed-types, and she may find herself on the lead in this one.

FIFTH RACE

PATIENT DIGNA moved too soon in that last one, making a three-wide middle move to reach the lead on the turn before flattening out late; tactical speed should mean she’s well spotted behind the pacesetters, and she can make amends here with a better-timed run. TEUFLES AND ROSES impressed in that easy score against lesser in her most recent, drawing off in the lane and then geared down in the late stages; obvious credentials despite the mandatory rise. FOR MY MOM hasn’t been out since that mid-January win against non-winners of two but she has to be considered a threat here on the strength of that running line.

SIXTH RACE

ANOTADOR closed with interest to get the place in that last try, a race which saw the winner return to repeat in his first start vs. winners, and he ran a strong race two back, in a route, when he made a mid-race at the lead after getting stuck behind a controlled pace; fits well based on the Beyers he posted in those races. ON JOHN makes his first

start on the main track and the solid breezes he’s turned in since his last start indicate he should handle it with no issue; main concern is the relatively short price despite his inexperience on the surface. BONNAROO FRANK has speed and the rail and will take them as far as he can on the front end.

SEVENTH RACE

ADMIRAL’S BRIDE was off slowly but moving well late in her first start off the short layoff, a deceptively good effort considering the fact that the race flow favored speeds; she was well off the board in prior two efforts at the meet but those fields were stronger than this one. LILIES AND ROSES was caught up in a duel in her latest and that cost her, as she tired late; expecting her to revert to stalking tactics here, as that is her best game. LEMON GROVE drops a notch after finishing a close 5th in her first start off the short break; tactical speed gives her an edge on the stone closers.

EIGHTH RACE

WEST SHORE DRIVE was no threat in his latest but that was no easy spot due to a lack of pace up front, and the same was true when he was off the board three back; stone closer should finally get at least an honest tempo today, with SEEKINGTHEPERFECT and GREAT HARBOUR CAY likely to be involved from the start. DEALINGATTHEGATE is another looking to come from well off the pace, and he should benefit from the expected race flow; he’s run deceptively well in defeat on a couple of occasions this year. SWING HARD was much the best on paper and on the racetrack in that maiden race last time and he’s a threat to repeat in his first start vs. winners if he can run back to that effort here.

NINTH RACE

FOR POINT OH has been showing a rating gear of late and that should help him work out a trip from the hedge here, regardless of how the race flow shapes up; may get first run at GADSBY TAVERN, or perhaps he’ll be on the lead if ridden aggressively in the opening stages. LITTLE CREEK closed well for the place in his latest, besting FOR POINT OH for the place, and that effort clearly makes him the one to fear in the stretch today; also rallied nicely two back. MORE THAN TEDDY lost his nest chance early on when last seen, as he was very wide on the dirt turn; he also had trouble in his bow but he has license to move way up here off the layoff, apparently in his first start as a gelding.