ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, DEAN VERDILE

FIRST RACE

TOTALED THE BENZ by a very good debut sire, and he goes for trainer who has had a good run with first time starters of late, especially in the maiden claiming ranks (past six months 6 for 14, 43%, $4.40 ROI); good post, but will likely have to get past his stablemate VALHALLA to score. VALHALLA dropped down last month for Pletcher as the heaviest of favorites, but got bumped at the start and was beaten to the lead by eventual winner Magic Holiday and couldn’t catch; horse to beat. JED TENNESSEE got outrun in MSW debut vs. a solid field and failed to make an impact, drops right away for good trainer. MYSTERIO has a nice pedigree for the price (stakes winning dam is out of multiple Grade 1 winner You’d Be Surprised), though it may be slanted more toward distance; trainer doesn’t crank them up right away.

SECOND RACE

MOTOWN SOUND ran well in each of his first two starts over the inner, including runnerup effort behind IN EQUALITY in December where he was shuffled out of traffic and lost position around the first-turn; stepped up in class last time and got stuck chasing from the outside on a day when the rail was strong. BIG AL PARKER third off the long layoff for a hot trainer, and dropping back down to a more appropriate level after getting outrun vs. allowance rivals last time; don’t love the field he beat two starts back, and he did receive an excellent ride that day, but he was also off a long layoff, and he did miss the break, as well; has some figures to get to from early last year that would give him a shot. IN EQUALITY dropping back down after giving way behind a front-running winner last time; had been in good form prior to that one, and he may be able to make the lead in this spot.

THIRD RACE

HOROSCOPE has improved right along since getting to concentrate on dirt racing, and he is clearly going to be tough to beat in this spot if able to even come close to repeating 90 Beyer he earned last time when just missing to a wellbacked first time starter; looks long gone, unless one of the first time starters is quick from the gate. PEAK PERFORMANCE the most interesting of those, shipping up from Florida with some good works showing; trainer can win with a first time starter, and like that she has reached out for an aggressive rider. SICILIA MIKE turned back in distance and was once again along late for a piece without ever threatening to win it vs. similar 13 days ago; tries again.

FOURTH RACE

FORGET IT took some money and had some speed over a tough distance on debut, then dropped all the way back to 5.5 furlongs for her second start, and once again had speed before getting out-finished in the stretch; faces some well-bred firsters in this spot, but her speed coupled with her experience gives her an edge, and Carmouche likely to be going with her. JULIASTOWN by a top sire in Speightstown, and her dam (a stakes winner on turf in her career) is out of a sister to Candy Ride; trainer has had some success with first time starters along the way, though mostly with routers. MADDY’S WAY from a dam who has been a strong producer, though her foals have preferred to get a distance of ground. LION IN WAIT the first foal from a winning dam who is a sister to the fleet Bayern, while VISERION is out of the multiple stakes winning sprinter Career Oriented. FLEET WEEK a homebred by Tapit, and he is a half to Mr Ryder, a stakes winner on turf; trainer saddled debut winner at a big price here last weekend.

FIFTH RACE

BOBBY ON FLEEK has a layoff to overcome, but he impressed when blowing out a field on debut with a strong figure for a summer 2yo; no chance with the fast Syndergaard in the Funny Side, which was run over a wet track. TRIBECCA has speed from the inside, and he can have a chance to rebound after fading behind the promising Blue Belt last time; owns top three Beyers in the field to this point. CERRETALTO sat a nice trip and handled Blue Belt with little trouble on debut, for which he

earned a decent figure of 74; don’t love that he has missed over 100 days since that promising debut, but he has a chance to be okay, and he is nicely drawn on the outside.

SIXTH RACE

HE CAN DANCE wasn’t finishing and was saved by the wire when winning at this level back in January, but that was off the layoff, and he made a strong run to take that race over through the turn; has faced tougher in pair of starts since, and he was a bit compromised by breaking slowly from the rail, before rushing up into a duel with favored Breeze Burner last time. MAGIC HOLIDAY stepped up his performance last time when flashing sharp speed to the lead, and the holding off heavily favored Valhalla all through the stretch to break his maiden with this fields top last out Beyer; logically spotted right back, but he speed directly to his inside and out. PORT MORE dropping back down after doing his best with a good trip, but getting out-finished by a better field last time; has a good running style for this race, with plenty of speed to his inside.

SEVENTH RACE

NON FINISCE MAI figures tough dropping down to face straight claimers for the first time, this after racing competitively with better horses right along; trainer has been on a good run lately, picking up 12 wins over the past 90 days, good for a $2.76 ROI. MOONDANCE JOY got in too tough two starts back off a short layoff, then came outside and chased a front-running winner to no avail last time; claimed again, but fits here with one of her good races. SWEETPOLLYPUREBRD still seems a better turf sprinter than anything else, but she can handle dirt, and she is back to the right level for this after stepping up off the claim last time; good post.

EIGHTH RACE

AMERICAN PIONEER began his career with plenty of promise after a smart debut vs. Dazzling Gem led to an impressive blowout score with an 88 Beyer in his second start; Arkansas Derby try not as bad as it looks considering the pace of that race, but his last two starts, which are separated by a layoff, are more difficult to excuse, as he gave up the running readily both times; may be too tall an order, but he can upset these if Servis can get him back, and he may be one who prefers twoturns. TATHQEEF won on debut in England, and was thought to be more of a synth/dirt prospect over there after failing ndto improve much on turf early last year; made dirt debut last month at GP, and chased a fast pace before taking over in the stretch, only to be closed down by a late-running Frammento at the end. CARDS OF STONE owns top two Beyers in this field, including that 97 he earned when dominating NY-breds off the layoff; don’t love his overall form, and find him hard to trust, but the figures suggest that he may be the horse to beat.

NINTH RACE

DEAN VERDILE at his best when able to get to the front, and that may be finally be the case for him in this field, which lacks for any confirmed front-runners; hasn’t won since claimed by these connections, but his form is dirtied up a bit by circumstance. GANADOR went to Laurel to find some cheaper, restricted competition to run against, and responded with a couple of competitive efforts, both after getting very good trips; can stay close in race without much pace. JOHN’S ISLAND likely to be hard on this field if he can still run, but that has to be called into question considering recent circumstances, where he was shopping for cheap races off the claim, before finally entering for $25k and doing very little running last time.